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Israel has achieved absolute dominance in war, dictating both content and pace

Benjamin Netanyahu, Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah and israel
Benjamin Netanyahu, Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah and israel / Image by: foto

In wars as we have known them, high military commanders do not often die. After losing a war, if they are unfortunate enough that the winner does not care for the Geneva Conventions, losses of commanders can only then become massive, in the form of the liquidation of the defeated. The Islamist political-military organization Hezbollah, which operates in Lebanon as an extended arm of the Iranian regime, has lost over five hundred operatives, both high-ranking military commanders and field commanders, even before conventional military escalation between it and Israel began.

After an unprecedented (obviously Mossad) operation with informants who exploded in the pockets of Hezbollah’s military and political operatives, which sowed panic and chaos in their ranks, a surgically precise Israeli operation followed to liquidate high-ranking Hezbollah commanders who gathered live in Beirut, deep underground, to avoid the danger of potential explosions of devices that served as communication aids. All this happened a few days before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the start of the Israeli military operation ‘Northern Arrow’, aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah’s military activities from southern Lebanon, securing Israel’s northern border strip, and returning home the population that was displaced after October 7 last year due to Hezbollah’s ‘support war’ for Hamas in Gaza.

A new generation war

This is, obviously, the announced ‘new generation war’, which seems to have ended or at least been brought to a close, even before it formally began. Before the new Israeli military operation was announced, most of the opposing Hezbollah command was taken out of action, and panic was sown among the rest. Thus, Hezbollah’s military capabilities were drastically reduced, and the story of Hezbollah as the strongest army that is not officially a state army has become, at least for a while, part of history.

Threats of revenge sent from a hidden place these days by Hezbollah’s religious and political leader Hassan Nasrallah increasingly sound like threats from an empty gun. Nasrallah is, as military analysts announce, a logical next target in this new generation war. Therefore, his current priority is to secure his own shelter, check the informant and mobile phone, and especially the people who guard him. Namely, at this stage of Middle Eastern warfare, Israel has shown absolute dominance over its opponents, not only in a technological sense, like the operation with informants, but also in the depth of intelligence infiltration into enemy ranks, which sows even greater chaos than technology.

Threats of revenge sent from a hidden place these days by Hezbollah’s religious and political leader Hassan Nasrallah increasingly sound like threats from an empty gun. And Nasrallah is, as military analysts announce, a logical next target in this war

The peak of Israeli (Mossad) intelligence penetration into enemy ranks was demonstrated this summer in Tehran when, after returning from the ceremonial inauguration of the new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was liquidated in the hotel residence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard before a previously placed explosive device. The scenario of the elimination suggests that Mossad had its operatives at the top of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Allegedly, Hamas’s chief was even led by Revolutionary Guard agents to descend three floors lower from the room originally intended for him, under the pretext of security reasons, to ensure the success of the (Mossad) operation.

The liquidation of Hamas’s chief in the residence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in terms of complexity and ultimately in terms of demonstrating superiority, is roughly equivalent to a scenario in which Revolutionary Guard operatives would kill the American Secretary of State in Mossad’s residence in Jerusalem. It has been a month and a half since then, and the announced Iranian revenge against Israel (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) has yet to occur. It seems to have fallen into oblivion, overshadowed by new Israeli operations. Iran has unusually calmly received the latest Israeli operations against Hezbollah as its strongest military-political exposure: from informants to the elimination of commanders to the announcement of the ‘Northern Arrow’ operation. Interestingly, it has recently announced that an investigation has determined that only weather conditions caused the helicopter accident in which the Iranian (hardline) president Raisi died in May this year.

Iran becoming increasingly cooperative

In fact, there are more and more indications that the latest war episode between Israel and Hezbollah is part of the so-called calibrated war between Israel and Iran, which leads towards de-escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict. In this war, Israel has achieved absolute dominance, dictating both content and pace. But Iran also seems to be becoming increasingly cooperative.

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