The Crypto Bull Market May Be Halfway, But It Is Not Over Yet

Sometimes the mood in the crypto world can be deceptive and can raise concerns about whether this market is in a bullish phase and when the real exponential growth will occur, or if it will at all? Although this answer lies in the performance of Bitcoin and other altcoin cryptocurrencies, historical data and recent developments can predict where the cycle currently stands.

In this analysis, we examine key metrics that suggest the bull market began about two years ago and may have reached the halfway point.

History Shows That the Cycle Is Far from Over

The year 2022 was particularly difficult for the crypto market, which had previously advanced in 2021. Major companies in the industry, such as FTX, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital, collapsed, leading to extensive bankruptcy cases and causing significant declines in cryptocurrency prices.

By November 21, 2022, Bitcoin had fallen to $15,409, Ethereum was trading at $1,065, BNB at $248, and Solana had dropped to $7.70. These levels were the lowest that the crypto asset class had seen in nearly two years.

Given this decline, it seems that November 2022 marked the bottom of the bear market. A strong price recovery at the beginning of 2023 supports the idea that January was the start of a new bullish cycle. Historically, crypto market cycles span approximately three years (1,047 to 1,278 days). Based on this timeframe, the current cycle has lasted about 640 days, indicating that the bull market is roughly halfway through.

First of all, Bitcoin’s halving, after which a massive price increase usually follows, occurred earlier this year. Interestingly, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high even before the halving, primarily driven by the approval of spot ETFs. Despite recent corrections and periods of consolidation, certain metrics suggest that Bitcoin has not yet peaked in this cycle. This leaves room for potential further growth as the bull market progresses.

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As seen in the graph above, the rise after the halving began in the fourth quarter of each year in which that event occurred. Therefore, if we follow this historical pattern, a significant surge could begin around October. Interestingly, it seems that the CEO of CryptoQuanta, Ki Young Ju, also agrees with this opinion.

– In the last halving cycle, the bullish growth started in the fourth quarter. Whales will not allow Q4 to be boring with equal YoY performance – Young Ju emphasized on X.

Cryptocurrency Prices Still Have Room to Grow

Historically, the price of Bitcoin has at least doubled during each halving year. In 2012, the price of Bitcoin increased by 2.52 times, followed by a rise of 2.26 times in 2016 and a jump of 4.05 times in 2020. By early 2024, Bitcoin was trading around $42,208. Even after reaching $73,750 in March, data suggests that the growth cycle is not yet over.

To align with past performances, the price of Bitcoin should rise further, targeting between $80,000 and $85,000 before peaking in this cycle. Historical trends indicate room for greater growth in 2024.

Starting with Ethereum, during the rise in 2021, the second most valuable cryptocurrency outperformed Bitcoin for an extended period.

Despite the current approval of ETFs, Ethereum has not mirrored its performance from three years ago. On June 20, Ethereum’s dominance was 18.80 percent. So far, it has fallen to 15 percent, signaling that the largest altcoin has yet to replicate its impressive streak from 2021.

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s dominance is over 57 percent. Furthermore, Ethereum’s disappointing performance is also attributed to the delay of the altcoin season in this cycle.

It is worth noting that Ethereum’s rise was one of the main factors that previously led many other altcoins to high peaks. However, it seems that BNB is the only major altcoin from the last cycle that has surpassed its previous all-time high.

Meme Tokens Have Already Tasted the Bull Market

While altcoins continue to underperform, two significant events suggest that this bull market may be halfway through. The first is the incredible returns achieved by meme tokens. In the last cycle, several meme tokens on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain created many millionaires.

This time, it seems that the blockchains offering them are Solana and, recently, Tron under the leadership of Justin Sun. The second on the list is celebrity engagement. In 2021, celebrities like Logan Paul, Paris Hilton, and Snoop Dogg, among others, were buying NFTs in the then craze for ‘cool pictures’.

In the meantime, it seems that the NFT madness is over, but celebrities are also involved in the market. People like Andrew Tate and Iggy Azalea have launched meme tokens Daddy and Mother.

Another indicator to consider for measuring the crypto market is the interest of small investors. Whenever the interest of small investors declines, it suggests that a bull market is ongoing but has not peaked yet.

Google Trends data shows that searches for cryptocurrencies reached their highest level in 2021, achieving a perfect score of 100. However, searches have consistently been lower this year, signaling reduced activity.

Bull markets typically see an increase in small investors as they drive demand. The current decline in interest suggests that this cycle has not yet reached its peak. The lack of widespread retail FOMO indicates greater growth potential as the cycle matures.

Long-term Data Suggests That an Upward Trend Could Begin Again

Additionally, the realized profit/loss ratio of long-term holders provided by Glassnode comes into play. As the name suggests, this metric tracks the behavior of long-term holders, showing whether they are recording profits or enduring losses.

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As of writing this text, this metric has declined from its peak in March, indicating that holders have reduced their profit-taking activity. This decline is similar to the 2021 cycle when the price of Bitcoin fell before restarting a new upward trend.

Therefore, if past results influence future trends, Bitcoin, as well as other cryptocurrencies, may reach new peaks. The on-chain analytical platform also agrees in its report from August 20.

– It is noticeable that during the peak in March 2024, this metric reached a similar height as previous market peaks. In both the 2013 and 2021 cycles, the metric fell to similar levels before continuing the upward price trend – stated Glassnode.

In summary, although some investors remain skeptical about the current market conditions, several indicators suggest that this is still a bull market despite recent volatility. The analysis suggests that prices could continue to rise, pushing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins to new peaks and fostering further momentum in this cycle.

However, caution is still advised. Increased volatility and occasional declines can lead to sudden price changes. If realized losses persist and dominate the market, the current cycle could transition into a downturn.