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Orbán’s foreign policy tour serves to strengthen Hungarian influence

<p>Mađarska, zastave</p>
Mađarska, zastave / Image by: foto

Since Hungary took over the EU presidency on July 1, Viktor Orbán’s aircraft has hardly turned off its engines. First, a surprise visit to Ukraine with a handshake with President Zelensky, just to say that he can talk to everyone. Then a flight to Moscow and talks with his (political) friend, Russian President Putin, sending the message that the Hungarian Prime Minister and current President of the European Council is actually on a peace mission. Individual, of course, because no one in the official EU structures knows anything about it. After that, a flight to Beijing and a cordial meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has recently become a significant economic partner (16 billion euros in direct Chinese investments in Hungary), contrary to the official European policy of reducing dependence on China. And Xi was, of course, immediately included in his peace initiative.

Orbán mocks the EU

Now he is already in the official role of Hungarian Prime Minister in Washington, at the NATO summit hosted by the unofficial leader of the only serious Western defense-security alliance, American President Joe Biden, whose visibly weakened mental capacities and determination to continue leading the Western world for the next four years increasingly provoke pity, disbelief, and concern. Meanwhile, Orbán is already counting on Donald Trump being back in the White House from January next year. In the meantime, he has gathered a right-wing group in the European Parliament, Patriots for Europe, which, after the National Rally of Marine Le Pen joined, has become the third strongest group in the EP, with prospects for further growth… All this time, the official structures of the EU, which are in a phase of not offending and negotiating a new administration, have been unable to devise any official response to Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy soloing.

So what is ‘flying Orbán’ actually doing at the beginning of the EU presidency? And why is he doing it? On a superficial level, he is entertaining himself as a self-proclaimed peace mediator, mocking the EU. Through his activities, he sends the message that he is (now) the one to call if you want to talk to the EU. Which, of course, is not true, but only confirms that in the EU you have no one to call when you really want to conduct serious geopolitical discussions. On a deeper level, Orbán certainly wants to weaken the existing EU mainstream nomenclature and become the founder of a new European right, if he cannot be a long-term leader, because Hungary simply is not a state of that order. By isolating everything that is to the right of the imagined center, the current European political mainstream has (been) of great help to him. And what will he do next with the political power he is gaining?

Just as Hungary, in terms of size, strength, and influence, is neither France nor Germany, so Viktor Orbán, even if he wanted to, cannot become (illusionistically) the strategist of a new Europe like Emmanuel Macron, whose vision is currently collapsing in real-time, nor the ‘big daddy’ of the EU as ‘big mama’ was Angela Merkel. His reach ends at a large, or rather, as influential as possible, Hungary, both in the surrounding countries (former Austro-Hungarian Monarchy) and in the structure of the EU. All his alliances are of a tactical nature: from Milanović and Vučić to Erdoğan, from Putin and Xi to Trump. And all are subordinated to the enhancement of Hungarian influence, which he builds on the failures and in the niches left open by unsuccessful great managers of Europe.

The pragmatic trader

Orbán brings Chinese investments to Hungary (electric vehicle industry) on the wave of the EU’s green policies, which he despises as a politician. His gas love affair with Putin has grown on Angela Merkel’s European energy policy. Unlike the narcissistic strategist Macron, he resembles a down-to-earth and pragmatic horse trader who extracts short-term profits for a greater Hungary wherever he sees an opportunity, regardless of the consequences.

In this context, his offensive in gathering far-right parties in the EP, which, besides the sovereignist expression, share a more or less pronounced pro-Russian orientation, should also be viewed. If we add the left and far-left, which always nurture pro-Russian sentiments in the end, there is a possibility that Putin will gain two Trojan horses in the new EP – one from the right, the other from the left. At a time when every serious European politician should place geopolitical interests above worldview, this is a serious challenge for the EU. But the causes should be sought in the serious ailments of French and German politics. And not in the horse trader who always takes what opportunities provide him.