As a long-time chronicler of economic and business events, whether I like it or not, over time I accumulate phrases and constructions to which I become allergic. If there were allergy tests of that kind, the chronicler would have both hands up to the shoulders full of severe reactions. On one level, the fact that some things annoy him is a private matter for the chronicler. But on a higher level, pointing them out in a specific way reflects the political, business, and media reality.
First, the good news. After about ten years, the famous sentence that ‘this season 200,000 skiers from Croatia will head to ski resorts’ has almost disappeared from the public space. Such an estimate slipped out of a tour operator’s mouth at one time. He pulled it out of his sleeve and with a thick hedge. But lazy analysts took it for granted, it became entrenched, and for years TV news programs began with that unfounded number. Interestingly, it has never been 190,000 or 210,000 skiers. But exactly 200,000.
Somewhat of a success has also been achieved in suppressing the narrative that ‘Croatia has nothing to export’. Many still think so today, but the media is somewhat more cautious with unfounded slandering of the manufacturing industry. It is now acknowledged that it does produce something, but it is again accused of low productivity without serious, in-depth analysis. But, hey, that’s still milder kicking.
Comparing Apples and Pears
Unfortunately, there is much more bad news. At the top of my list is the statistical ignorance of many politicians, analysts, editors, journalists, and even university professors about the fact that nothing can be ‘twice less‘ or ‘ten times less’ than something. This does not exist in mathematics or statistics.
Something can be half or a tenth of something larger. After years of warning, I am slowly giving up. Journalists and editors say that ‘three times lower salary’ is stronger than ‘a third of someone’s higher salary’. You ask them, how much is one time lower salary? They say: ‘Zero’. And how much is two times less? They smile sourly, look at you with pity, and the next week a headline pops up ‘We have 300 times fewer members than HDZ’. A competing media outlet publishes a statement from a law professor a few days later that ‘Denmark has six million inhabitants, but half as many courts and four times fewer disputes’. And surely during his schooling, the esteemed professor passed statistics. After that, I skip all his future wisdom.
—
—
A similar inaccuracy that is regularly repeated is that the share of tourism in Croatia’s GDP is 20 percent. In fact, it is a stupid comparison. Revenue from tourism (that is, not profit) is compared with the level of GDP (simplified, the added value of the national economy). Comparing pears and apples. It is not only local analysts and politicians who are superficial. This inaccuracy has also been adopted by many international institutions. The share of GDP according to serious analyses is around 11 percent. But who cares.
Speaking of tourism, the boasting of continental politicians that they are achieving great results in tourism has spread like a plague. When a mayor or city councilor from Slavonia or northwestern Croatia boasts about tourism in the first sentence, he is actually admitting that nothing has been done to develop the industry.
There are also accurate statements from wanderers, but which can also cause a rash. When an economist starts a presentation with the words ‘Croatia is a small and open economy’, that is a sign to stop listening. When someone starts with ‘small and open’, it is almost a foolproof sign that ‘small and open’ will be an alibi for lack of ambition and ideas.
Non-issue for Lazy Diagnosticians
For many allergies, PR spin doctors are to blame. For example, when a press release arrives in the editorial office stating that such and such a company has acquired a ‘strategic partner’. In four out of five cases, when you go to check what it is about, it turns out that the previous owner has actually sold the company. Partnership, especially strategic, would imply a merger, not a sale.
A special type of allergy is the result of the unbearable ease of giving miraculous advice on how to solve this or that problem. I believe that artificial intelligence could confirm the high growth rate of mentions of the phrase ‘political will’. If there were political will, everything would be resolved. But, there is generally no political will. Why is there none and what to do without it? That is a non-issue for diagnosticians who do not want to think deeply.
There could be more listed, but ‘Ekonomalije’ has a limited number of characters. In the end, there will surely be some follower of Lider who will bring me back to that ‘twice less’ and give me an example of how such constructions can be found on our platforms. Given that I have been tormenting the team with this topic for ten years, it seems to me that it is not a matter of ignorance. I have long suspected that there is some competition about who is brave enough to raise the editor’s blood pressure on a topic that causes him the most severe form of allergy.
