Bernstein Analysts: Bitcoin Price Could Reach $200,000 Next Year

Despite recent weakness, the price of bitcoin is poised to reach $200,000 over the next year, according to global investment firm AllianceBernstein.

In a research note released on Thursday, the firm cited limited bitcoin supply amid unprecedented demand from spot ETFs as two growth factors. Previously, Bernstein estimated in March that bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.

Bernstein’s bitcoin price revision coincided with a market downturn, which triggered millions of dollars in liquidated crypto positions as the price of bitcoin fell to $65,000. After peaking at around $73,000 in March, the largest cryptocurrency has struggled to reach new highs again.

Nonetheless, Bernstein analysts predict that spot bitcoin ETFs will have $190 billion in assets under management (AUM) by the end of 2025. So far, the class of products approved in January has raised $53 billion in AUM, according to CoinGlass.

Bernstein’s bullish forecast for bitcoin is contained in an analysis for MicroStrategy, the American software company and largest corporate holder of bitcoin. Bernstein highlighted the company as a bet on bitcoin with ‘active leverage’ compared to the passive nature of spot bitcoin ETFs.

Announcing that it would sell more debt to purchase bitcoin at the end of last week, MicroStrategy’s holding of 214,400 bitcoins is worth approximately $14.3 billion at the time of writing. Bernstein analysts noted that MicroStrategy is the only company using capital markets to buy bitcoin.

– We believe that MSTR’s long-term convertible debt strategy allows sufficient time to benefit from the price appreciation of bitcoin, with limited risk of bitcoin liquidation on the balance sheet – wrote Bernstein analysts, giving the company co-founded by Michael Saylor an ‘outperform’ rating.

MicroStrategy’s shares have risen 116% year-to-date to $1,484. In March, when the price of bitcoin set a new all-time high, the company’s stock price even climbed to $2,000 before falling.

The expected rise in bitcoin’s price can be traced to a four-year cycle that the asset has historically followed, wrote Bernstein analysts. This cycle has restarted, the firm said, when the rate at which new bitcoins are mined was halved in April as part of the so-called halving.

As spot bitcoin ETFs continue to accumulate inflows, Bernstein wrote that this activity lays the groundwork for a breakout phase in bitcoin’s price. This could give way to the so-called hype phase, the analysts wrote, where investors envision unrealistic target prices amid mass interest.

Looking beyond 2025, Bernstein analysts assume that the cryptocurrency could reach $500,000 by the end of 2029, followed by a lull before bitcoin crosses $1 million by the end of 2033.