A line of optimism, a line of pessimism

June is a month when it is exceptionally exciting at Lider. From each of the, as it is modernly said, platforms (printed edition with supplements, web portal, podcast, and conferences), dozens and dozens of valuable information arrive. As is usually the case, the more information there is, the harder it is to find a common denominator. Especially when it comes to the future of the economy and business.

Just when the chronicler thinks he has a solid thesis, some example or argument hits him that shakes that thesis, whether optimistic or pessimistic. So the only thesis, and every commentator worth their salt must have one, is that we are witnesses, and many of us are also actors, of never more different forces and that it is almost impossible to put all the cards in one direction.

Plenković’s sin

For example, we go to Osijek, where we hold a regional forum ‘Lider invest‘ at the Faculty of Economics. You notice that there is no longer any self-pity about the decline of Slavonia. You listen to an entrepreneur from a company that has become a serious player in the global market for drone components. Then you hear about a company that produces, exports, and makes good profits on eco-plastics. And you know of a number of other good industrial stories.

But then, a few days later, you are hit by the news of a dramatic decline in agricultural production in Slavonia. And it is clear to you that the emergence of a dozen new industrial stories will not be able to compensate for the decline in agriculture.

Then at the judging for this year’s ‘Lider invest’ awards for manufacturing investments, you notice that applications have come from as many as 12 counties. We award the prize to a Dalmatian company that processes oil used in hotels and restaurants. Then the award for processing sheep wool into fertilizer goes to Lika. You realize that most of the 14 awarded companies consider strengthening their research and development departments as part of their investments. The institutes of many large companies have been destroyed in the transformation. Now there is no successful medium-sized industrial company that does not seriously invest in research and development.

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But then, as if in spite, you read on Lider’s web that Croatia is second only to Denmark in terms of expenditures for salaries in the public and state sector. And ahead of Sweden and Finland. It is clear that Plenković’s pre-election buying of the state apparatus, without asking for anything in return, is a burden for all those entrepreneurial stories that fascinate us. There will not be enough money to attract researchers to the development centers of private companies. It will not be possible to capitalize on the momentum to attract foreign investments and encourage domestic entrepreneurs to pursue development even more ambitiously. The argument that the qualification structure in the public sector is higher than in the private sector is terrifying. Only a highly qualified team in private companies can create greater added value.

Scaling, not corruption

Then a person listens to young entrepreneurs on Lider’s podcast and optimism returns. Social networks have given many bluffers the opportunity, who are now experts in artificial intelligence, yesterday were for big data, the day before for EU funds and green transition. But in their shadow, a new team of real managers and entrepreneurs has emerged whose business models are not based on membership or connections in the party. Their key word is not local corruption but scaling on a global level.

But then the always original analyst of economic processes at our gathering says not to deceive ourselves. That after the phase of selling off the family silver and borrowing (up to 2009) and whining in prolonged recession (up to 2015), the Croatian economic model is based on tourism. And that it will remain so. And that it is comforting that a crisis in tourism can last a year or two, so our recessions will be short. Another analyst supplements him with the announcement that investments in desired parts of the national economy will fall by 30 percent in the next period. And that many transitional countries will surpass us even more.

So you grab onto a panel on the first day of Lider’s ‘Financial-Investment Forum‘, where it turns out that there is money for development projects. Entrepreneurs who allow investment funds to co-own are surprised at how suddenly they have resources for development that they could only dream of.

But the next day you are hit hard when you read that soothing messages have been sent from the ruling circles to numerous EU fund dependents that they should not worry and that there will be money from the funds even after 2027. And thus they successfully demotivate those who have projects that are not useless investments for Croatia’s future according to the ideas of EU bureaucrats.

Experienced chroniclers have advised: ‘Be a pessimist, you are more likely to be right.’ However, over the years, the chronicler gets tired of being right.