In the American Pre-Election Chaos, Europe is Left Without a Compass

Europe has reasons to watch the pre-election campaign in the U.S. with concern and even anxiety. Whenever old Europe has felt insecure, lost, or disoriented in the last eighty years, it has usually looked across the Atlantic for a compass, help, and support.

After the Allied victory in World War II, the U.S. helped old Europe establish a defense system (NATO) and an economic-political alliance (EU), played a key role in ending the wars following the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, expanded NATO and the EU to new members, helped the EU regroup after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and positioned itself in Middle Eastern conflicts. It hasn’t always had a brilliant leader in the White House, but it has had a strong legal order and a balanced political system on which clear leadership has been built.

Lack of Personnel to Work with Trump

Five months before the U.S. presidential elections, the view across the ocean presents a picture of an unprecedented America. A New York jury has convicted former president and current Republican candidate Donald Trump in the first instance for influencing the results of the 2016 election because he bribed the so-called adult actress Stormy Daniels with money to silence her about their alleged sexual affair from 2006! Along with this trial, candidate Trump has three more indictments hanging over him, and it is currently uncertain how his legal saga will unfold until the elections and how it will affect voter sentiment.

So far, it seems that the verdict has further motivated his electoral base, and in Trump, it has strengthened the determination to endure to the end. In the U.S., even final convictions, let alone a potential prison sentence, are not a legal barrier that can stop a presidential candidacy. It is also likely that these processes have not strengthened the impression that everyone is equal before the law, but rather left the impression of political instrumentalization of the judicial system.

In the event of Trump’s victory, the White House will be occupied by a vengeful president, focused primarily on internal American conflicts, which will become even more intense. Despite the expected heightened rhetoric, I do not believe in drastic changes in Trump’s foreign policy, such as withdrawing the U.S. from NATO, handing Ukraine over to Putin, or, on a narrower regional level, that his policy would be determined by political friendship with Viktor Orbán or his son-in-law’s business cooperation with Vučić’s Serbia. I am more concerned about the lack of politicians in the EU, and in Croatia, who know how to work with Trump as an interest-driven businessman and showman, rather than as a bureaucrat in diplomatic gloves. Therefore, misunderstandings and fractures are expected, even greater than in Trump’s first term.

Extension of the Status Quo

The other option is another term for Joe Biden, who has announced his presidential candidacy and the candidacy of current vice president Kamala Harris. This would be an extension of the status quo, with the prospect of decline. Namely, apart from his age, making him the oldest American president (he would be a full 81 years old at the time of the next inauguration), Biden’s cognitive capacities are a sad story. He was concerning even at the beginning of his term, today he leaves the impression of general disorientation, and it is hard to imagine him in another term.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who would inherit the presidency in case of incapacitation, has serious problems with her political capacities, which is why she has been largely invisible for most of the current term after initial enthusiasm. Namely, the always-smiling Kamala, even when speaking seriously, has not been taken seriously by anyone. Additionally, Biden has a sensitive corruption trial in his immediate family (son Hunter). His victory would also mean a deepening of internal conflict. In foreign policy, the impression is not bad at all and only confirms the structure of the deep state, which can lead the country without the active presence of the president. However, if this path continues, it may soon happen that you won’t know whom to call in Washington even in the U.S.

It cannot be entirely ruled out that Biden may withdraw due to health reasons and launch some surprise Democratic candidate. But even if that happens, the impression of open political engineering, deficient democracy, and instrumentalized justice will remain. And that, along with military power, has made America the leader of the Western democratic world. Europe is facing security challenges from the East, geopolitical ambitions from China, and increasing internal division due to the Russo-Ukrainian war and Middle Eastern conflicts. But even the view across the Atlantic, from where a compass would usually come, does not seem promising for now.