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Focus on national interests could distance Croatia from the EU

Once, a small entrepreneur, otherwise a fervent leftist, claimed that everyday, that small life business flows better when HDZ is in power. We haven’t checked, but he is probably happy again, as HDZ is now joined by the ‘Homeland Movement of big capital‘ or, as it is colloquially said, hard core entrepreneurs, so there is ‘to make flowers bloom in our company’. However, many with a more sensitive stomach do not think much about the economy, but about all those shades of gray that will somewhat darken in the rest of the social pores where women, minorities, foreign workers live… However, democracy has rounded itself; those who might have scratched out some other option have long since emigrated or are just preparing for that ‘treasonous’ act.

Those of us who stubbornly remain, welcome and send off all kinds of government compositions, as always at the beginning of a mandate, are troubled by the question of intention, goals, criteria, implementation. This is especially true since coalitions are more shaky and vulnerable than single-party rule, despite the fact that (this time too) it is about partners that are somewhat ideologically close. However, it seemed so with Most as well, but more on that lesson later. So, what awaits us with the new coalition? The answer is somewhat easier to read from the field of social issues.

Green on standby

When it comes to the economy, the principle on the menu is – maximum protection of Croatian interests! A clever quip in a time of complete European and global intertwining (we just need to finalize the signature on membership in the OECD) pulls only towards the axis Orbán Fico Babiš Duda. If the DP, when it occupies the Banski dvori, does not soften its rhetoric, we will find ourselves in the company of the Visegrad Group, which Brussels is increasingly financially punishing. Because, the protection of Croatian interests implies occasional or, depending on the endurance of the member, more permanent deviations from the tracks of consistent European policy, from those ‘trivial gender and other equality‘ issues to the relationship towards the Russo-Ukrainian war and Russian energy sources. And when we talk about the latter topic, there are two unknowns on the table. One is the entanglement and future influence of the relationship between the likely Deputy Prime Minister Mario Radića and PPD’s Pavla Vujnovca regarding Russian gas, indirectly also the spread of pro-Russian influence. Given that gas is the central energy topic, and energy is in the hands of DP members (while they have disdainfully pushed all that green onto HDZ), it somehow seems that renewable sources in designing the expected energy mix (hopefully they will design it) could remain on standby longer, while Russian energy could remain key longer. Since Croatia will certainly not withdraw from the EU, and the EU with a plethora of directives, regulations, and taxonomies obliges to green, the DP, whether it wants to or not, must play by the rules; otherwise, it could become a serious point of contention. Such an opinion runs through the analytical lines that rely on EU mechanisms and institutions.

– Croatia is a member of the euro area with built-in mechanisms for protection against political voluntarism and exhibitionism, so the space for pro-Russian economic influence is nevertheless narrowed. Also, any manipulation with European funds is not possible, institutions, rules, and oversight are arranged too firmly for the ambitions of the DP to disrupt anything. However, political influence is not insignificant. Aspirations exist, economic interests are clear, but that influence will remain at an indirect level, as the space for the spread of pro-Russian ideas is nevertheless limited – assures one of them.

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