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Trade with China has not compensated Gazprom for Europe

The Russian gas company Gazprom may face a long period of poor performance as it attempts to fill the gap left by the European boycott through domestic markets and exports to China.

Once the most profitable Russian company, it recently reported an annual net loss of seven billion dollars, the first since 1999, following a sharp decline in trade with Europe.

Gazprom’s problems reflect the deep impact that European sanctions have had on the Russian gas industry, as well as the limitations of the increasingly close partnership with China.

Moscow has more easily absorbed the impact of international sanctions on oil exports as it has managed to redirect exports via sea routes to customers outside Europe.

Gazprom relied on Europe as its largest sales market until 2022 when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine prompted the EU to reduce Gazprom’s gas imports.

In 2022, Russia delivered a total of about 63.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to Europe via various routes, according to Gazprom data and calculations by Reuters. The volume further decreased last year by 55.6 percent to 28.3 bcm.

In 2018, Gazprom exported 200.8 bcm to the EU and other countries, such as Turkey.

Mysterious explosions on the Nord Stream underwater pipelines, which connected Russia and Germany, in September 2022 also significantly undermined Russian-European gas trade.

Russia then turned to China, seeking to increase its gas sales through pipelines to 100 bcm annually by 2030.

Gazprom began supplying gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline at the end of 2019. It plans to reach the annual capacity of that pipeline, of 38 bcm, by the end of this year, while Moscow and Beijing agreed in 2022 to export 10 bcm from the Pacific island of Sakhalin.

Russia’s greatest hope lies in the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which will go through Mongolia and is planned to export 50 bcm annually. However, there have also been some problems arising mainly from insufficient agreements on prices and other issues.

According to the Russian consulting firm BCS, Gazprom’s revenue from gas sales to Europe averaged 3.3 billion dollars per month from 2015 to 2019, thanks to monthly deliveries of 15.5 bcm.

Taking into account a price of 286.9 dollars per thousand cubic meters and Gazprom’s gas exports of 22.7 bcm last year, the total value of gas sold to China could reach 6.5 billion dollars for the entire year of 2023, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Economy.

Russia expects that the price of gas for China will continue to gradually decline over the next four years, while the worst-case scenario does not rule out a drop of 45 percent to 156.7 dollars per thousand cubic meters in 2027 compared to 2023, according to documents seen by Reuters.

It was not highlighted what could affect the price drop, but Russia faces competition from other gas suppliers via pipelines competing for China, such as Turkmenistan, as well as LNG transported by sea.

Gazprom’s financial reports, which also include its oil and energy units, showed that last year revenues from natural gas operations more than halved.

Expert from the Moscow Institute for Energy and Finance Aleksey Belogoryev stated that it would be impossible for Gazprom to regain profitability relying solely on its gas business.

He said that a strategic shift towards the production and export of ammonia, methanol, and other gas processing products for Gazprom is possible, but it will not pay off quickly.

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