It is not particularly original to predict that the future HDZ-DP government has both a winning and losing perspective. Even Pythia would hit that. It is somewhat more complex to shift from the competitive, high-voltage mode of the election campaign, where cannons shoot at mosquitoes and elephants roll in glasshouses, to the pragmatic mode of state management. And the success and survival of the new government depend on that.
In line with a positive approach – first the winning option. And that in its political, geopolitical, and economic aspect. In the segment of political influence, the Homeland Movement (DP) achieved exactly the kind of result that allows it to become a factor that will stimulate changes in the HDZ, especially in terms of personnel mobility and party management. And the HDZ achieved exactly the kind of result that motivates Andrej Plenković to modify his autocratic way of managing the party due to his own political ambitions (Brussels sooner or later). DP’s influence on changing ideological policies (attitude towards progressive-green agendas) is also possible, as well as on changing migration policies, which are today key challenges of European politics. However, for this to succeed, the DP must not step outside the permitted EU parameters, and Andrej Plenković as Prime Minister has the option (minorities plus occasional ‘defectors’) to potentially resolve any excessive deviation with a secretary who will write a solution.
The Most Important Segment of DP’s Influence
A favorable wind for the HDZ-DP government is the European political trend shifting to the right – from policies towards (illegal) migration to green policies. The geopolitical segment is strategically well charted and mostly predetermined for Croatia by its membership in the EU and NATO, and Plenković’s government is mostly implementing it in a textbook manner. There is no particular space for the DP to create here; it is more of a test on which it can rid itself of the attribute of a Russian player that follows it in the media and political public. A welcome change in this segment would be to strengthen the transatlantic component, i.e., the Croatian-American partnership in defense and security, in synergy with the DP and the politically awakened HDZ.
And finally, the economic and demographic sector is the most important segment of influence in which the DP, as a coalition partner in the government, could contribute to better state management. Mario Radić, the true frontman of the DP, emphasizes demographic renewal as one of the political priorities. It is easier to say than to change the entire Croatian economic policy paradigm, which consists of the distribution of both Croatian and European budget money, above and below the grain, thus tying preferred party and other clientele to the state, regardless of the effects of those investments. And demographic policy practically does not exist; it is reduced to the spontaneous emigration of Croatian citizens and spontaneous (temporary?) immigration of foreign workers, whose planning is more or less left to private agencies. The DP has no share in power, nor the personal potential to change the dominant Croatian economic paradigm in which negative demographics have become the weakest point. However, it has open doors for some changes that can profile it as a party. These primarily relate to encouraging more meaningful and development-oriented investment (spending) of budget money and designing incentive measures for demographic renewal, including measures for return, economic and social integration of the diaspora, both from this newer European wave and the older diaspora from the 20th century. This shift can be achieved through influence in several related ministries (agriculture, regional development, economy, demographics, and immigration, if established…). Its recommendation is likely due to coming from demographically devastated and economically weakened Slavonia, and because Mario Radić comes from an entrepreneurial milieu. However, the first test will be the ministries in which he wants influence and the people with whom he wants to achieve it.
