If you truly believe in Croatian political leaps and bounds, the job of President of the European Commission (EC) is one of the most banal and undesirable in Europe. Zoran Milanović would not take that position, that influence, and especially that measly €27,000 basic monthly salary if he were begged on his knees. Nikola Grmoja would not accept it even if those ‘European bureaucrats’ came to Metković to beg him. Therefore, speculations about Andrej Plenković as a possible candidate for President of the European Commission, which were put forward by the German Bild and echoed by many others, were immediately interpreted as – Plenković’s escape.
As if the possibility of the Croatian Prime Minister becoming the head of the European government opens up solely so that Plenković can escape substantive exchanges of opinions and insults with Milanović, Grmoja, Grbin, Benčić, and other leaders of Croatian political thought and action.
Plenković’s Advantages
Calculations about Plenković as a possible candidate for President of the EC are still, of course, on a long stick and may end up in the trial balloon column. However, this time these speculations are not unrealistic. Due to dissatisfaction among the French with Ursula von der Leyen’s new mandate and the slim chances of producing their own candidate for the Commission presidency from the ranks of the EPP (which have fallen to the political margins in France), Plenković is a realistic candidate. The fact that he comes from Croatia may secure him support in the new European states and give him an advantage over Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Maltese politician Roberta Metsola, who, among other things, lacks experience in executive power.
Foreign policy experience, negotiation skills, and pragmatism in international politics put him in a competitive race with veteran European and Italian politician Mario Draghi, while his younger age and current prime ministerial position are advantages. But let’s leave aside speculations about possible successors to Ursula von der Leyen, if her candidacy is even called into question. The political reality is that Andrej Plenković’s departure to any high position in the EU would be a win-win situation for him and for Croatia as a state, for the HDZ, but also for the overall Croatian political scene.
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The position of President of the European Commission would, of course, be the pinnacle of that win-win outcome, which will largely depend on the results of the European elections. Because, let’s be realistic, that position is far above the Croatian political category. And in the event that it materializes, it would be exclusively Plenković’s, not a state result. However, the Croatian public (whether out of ignorance or lower motives) is equally uncritical of successes in politics as it is of those in football – anything below gold is a defeat. In real terms, there are several positions in the EU that would be a success for Plenković in the European political arena: President of the European Council, High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy… Even the position of EC Commissioner with the status of Executive Vice President of the EC would not be a European political defeat for him, but an opportunity to begin creating a new European career after yet another (relative) electoral victory. In Croatian politics, as these elections have indicated, Plenković’s career can only go on a downward trajectory.
A Multiplicatively Beneficial Departure
From the perspective of the state’s interests and its democratic development, as well as from the perspective of political parties, Andrej Plenković’s departure to European politics would be multiplicatively beneficial. Given the geopolitical volatility of our eastern neighborhood, it is very important from the standpoint of state interests to have a person in an influential position in the EU who deeply understands the issues. Additionally, the negative balance of Plenković’s past two mandates is that he has turned politics into interest pragmatism and substantively one-partyism, comparable to a train into which interested clients and party-selected acolytes board after elections, while the doors close to everyone outside that interest circle. The result has been lethargy and clientelism in the ruling HDZ and reducing the political opposition to anger towards the government and destruction that can, in the next step, turn into a miner of the tracks.
Thanks largely to the revolver-like interventions of President Milanović and the subsequent electoral results, a new dynamic has been introduced into the Croatian political arena and Plenković’s omnipotence has been weakened. His departure to European politics would open up opportunities for Croatian parties to profile themselves politically and create a truly competitive multiparty system. If after the presidential elections Zoran Milanović were sent to a nicer place – it would be a triple victory.
