Marčac on the TikTok Ban: This Year Provides Enough Time for Reflection and Adaptation

The U.S. Senate has approved a controversial bill that could lead to a ban on TikTok in the U.S.

The Chinese owner of TikTok, ByteDance, has nine months to sell its stake or the app will be blocked in the country. The bill, after being approved by the Senate, will now be submitted to U.S. President Joe Biden, who has stated that he will sign it into law as soon as it reaches his desk.

ByteDance told the BBC that they currently have no reaction to the Senate’s latest move, but the company previously stated that it would oppose any attempt to force it to sell TikTok. If the U.S. succeeds in forcing ByteDance to sell, approval from Chinese officials will still be required for any deal, but Beijing has promised to oppose such a move. We spoke with Dario Marčac, a TikTok consultant and founder of the influencer community Crew, about the future of the platform.

TikTok Under the Greatest Scrutiny, What About Others?

– Current discussions in the U.S. regarding a potential ban on TikTok are primarily based on national security and data privacy concerns. The worries are particularly focused on possible connections between TikTok and the Chinese government, raising fears of improper handling of American users’ data. However, it is important to highlight that TikTok has taken significant steps to counter these accusations and improve its image regarding data protection. The project in Texas, which involves building infrastructure for domestic data storage and processing, and transferring the management of TikTok’s American user data to the American company Oracle, is one of the key moves that TikTok has made to demonstrate its commitment to user security, Marčac explained.

If a ban does occur, it could be perceived as an unjustified and counterproductive solution, Marčac adds, as TikTok is making greater efforts to protect data than many other tech platforms that remain unregulated and without similar accusations. A ban could raise questions about equal conditions for all companies operating in the U.S. market, potentially even prompting stricter regulations for all tech giants.

– A potential ban on TikTok could be a visible sign of rising geopolitical tensions and a desire for greater control over the tech ecosystem in the U.S., and it could also serve as a precedent for how the U.S. approaches issues of digital security and competition in the global market. I believe that such a decision will not be made lightly and will certainly be the subject of extensive discussions and legal challenges, says Marčac.

On the other hand, analysts believe that this tug-of-war between the two countries and TikTok, or ByteDance, could last for years. The latest measure in the Senate was passed as part of a package of four bills that also include military aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and other U.S. partners in the Indo-Pacific region. It had broad support from lawmakers, with 79 senators voting for it and 18 against.

– For years, we have allowed the Chinese Communist Party to control one of the most popular apps in America, which was dangerously shortsighted. The new law will require the Chinese owner to sell the app. This is a good move for America, said Senator Marco Rubio, the first Republican on the Intelligence Committee.

It Is Difficult to Predict the Future of TikTok in the EU

Just as Marčac said, fears that data on millions of Americans could end up in Chinese hands have prompted Congress to try to separate TikTok from Beijing-based ByteDance as soon as possible. Last week, the social media company stated that the bill would ‘trample on the free speech rights of 170 million Americans, destroy seven million businesses, and shut down a platform that contributes $24 billion annually to the U.S. economy.’

TikTok has repeatedly stated that ByteDance ‘is not an agent of China or any other country,’ and ByteDance insists that it is not a Chinese company, pointing to global investment firms that own 60 percent of the platform. If a solution is not found and TikTok is indeed banned in the U.S., there is a strong chance that the same fate will await the EU. Or?

– It is difficult to predict with certainty how the situation will develop for TikTok in the European Union, as the platform has not yet fully implemented all its features available in other markets, such as the U.S. In the U.S., according to available data, about seven million small business owners use the platform for advertising, utilizing advanced features that are currently less available or not implemented at all in Europe.

The introduction of these advanced features in the European Union could significantly impact the further growth and popularity of TikTok among European users and advertisers. The ability for European businesses to advertise through the platform and for creators to access the Creator Fund in ways that have proven successful in America could significantly increase engagement and revenue from advertising and creation. If TikTok succeeds in implementing these features while complying with local laws, it can expect significant growth and deepening of its influence in the European digital market, Marčac believes.

ByteDance has been doing its utmost to gather support against a potential ban in the U.S., including a large lobbying campaign. It has also encouraged TikTok users and content creators to clearly express their opposition to the bill. Professor of Law at the University of Richmond, Carl Tobias, told the BBC that a lengthy legal battle is likely to follow that could ‘last about two years.’

TikTok Is Just a Wave in a Trend-Filled Market

If a buyer for ByteDance’s stake is not found within nine months, this could further delay any action against TikTok in the U.S. If this does happen, it is not just a matter of shutting down the platform, but also the future of creators who depend on it.

– As for alternative platforms, it is difficult to say with certainty which will emerge as the main destination for the TikTok community. At this point, it is only clear from user reactions that platforms within the Meta group, such as Instagram and Facebook, may not be the first choice among TikTok creators and users, as they partly hold Meta responsible for the influence on the TikTok ban.

This year provides enough time for reflection and adaptation, which is crucial given the speed at which the digital environment is changing. It is not easy to predict how the market will evolve and where the audience’s focus may eventually shift if changes occur on TikTok, comments Marčac.

Explaining the current situation unfolding in the U.S., Marčac emphasized that the current period provides an opportunity to explore and understand how users’ digital habits are changing – so this period also allows TikTok and its users to adapt to possible scenarios, either through the development of new functionalities or through changes in strategy to ensure long-term sustainability and success. Still, he is aware of the potential challenges that could arise from a possible disappearance of the platform in the EU, but just like any entrepreneur, Marčac is aware that he must remain flexible and proactive in a constantly changing market.

– As someone whose business is based on managing TikTok profiles and collaborating with content creators, the focus is on continuously monitoring and adapting to new communication channels. TikTok currently represents the main platform, and we expect it to remain so for some time. If changes occur, our advantage lies in timely recognition of trends and informing our clients and creators about the best steps forward.

The vertical video format, which TikTok popularized, has shown its value and flexibility, and its application is not limited to just one platform. This gives us additional confidence that the competencies and experience we possess will remain relevant, regardless of the future of the platform itself, concludes Marčac.