Karlo Jurak: Repeated elections have never been more certain

Unofficial results from the State Election Commission after processing almost all polling stations, according to media calculations, show that HDZ convincingly wins the parliamentary elections and secures 61 mandates, while the Coalition of Justice led by SDP receives 42 mandates. The Homeland Movement is third with 14 mandates, Most receives 11, and Možemo! 10 mandates. IDS and the Independent Platform North each secure 2 mandates, while the Focus-Republic coalition gets 1.

According to the first results of the State Election Commission published yesterday at 21:15, in the parliamentary elections in Croatia, HDZ had 65 mandates, the Coalition of Justice led by SDP had 42 mandates, the Homeland Movement 13, Most 10, Možemo 5, IDS and partners 4, the Independent Platform North 2, and Focus and Republic 2.

As with previously published survey results among voters, these results are actually expected and there are no major surprises, believes Karlo Jurak, a political analyst. However, Jurak emphasizes that now, at least judging by the first results, there are two major options that could potentially have more sub-combinations.

– I think HDZ will go ‘breaking’ the Homeland Movement, that is, attracting some representatives from DP, if not the whole party. If they want to, and it is important to them, they might also go with minorities. That option is more likely. A less likely option is a broader opposition list that would include the SDP coalition, Možemo, the Independent Platform North, IDS, and Focus. Minorities would also be considered, and perhaps Most or DP, which will be the toughest nut to crack for negotiations. Milanović’s role will be crucial in this because he entered this story for that reason and is the only one who can somehow unite the left and part of the right in his personality – explained Jurak, noting that clear signals were coming from both sides that SDP could ultimately unite with DP.

However, how sustainable such a combination would be, Jurak added, is a long shot. Therefore, it could very quickly lead to new elections.

– Whatever combination is in question, repeated elections have never been more certain – Jurak believes.

‘A more political’ year

Jurak attributes the higher turnout in this year’s parliamentary elections, which according to processed polling stations is almost 60 percent, to Wednesday, but also to the stronger politicization of the population in the last year.

– The higher turnout was greatly influenced by Wednesday, a non-working day that is hard to combine. Secondly, the situation is currently more political than it was four years ago due to the coronavirus and summer, and SDP was then the weakest ever, with the weakest leader. This is also a consequence of greater party activity during this year’s campaign – concluded Jurak.

However, one should not rush to conclusions as the first election results relate only to 32 percent of processed polling stations, which mainly pertain to rural areas, while, for example, Zagreb, as well as most polling stations in Split and Rijeka, have not yet been processed. Therefore, not much more can be said about the results of the elections for the 11th term of the Croatian Parliament than could be said before the elections themselves. Possible coalitions could only be discussed with greater certainty after 22:30, Jurak noted.

The most important part – negotiations – follows tomorrow.