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World Bank: Croatia is Growing, While the Recovery of Emerging Economies in Europe and Central Asia is Slowing

Economic activity in Croatia continues to show resilience, with a GDP growth of 2.8% in 2023, remaining well above the European Union average, reports the World Bank. This is primarily due to the rapidly growing tourism sector and strong inflows of funds from the EU, supportive fiscal policy, a strong labor market, and a significant influx of remittances from workers abroad, which has stimulated stable growth in personal consumption, according to today’s World Bank report on emerging and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia.

Growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2024, primarily as a result of the spillover of positive trends from 2023, strengthening external demand, and expansive fiscal policy. Additionally, a strong labor market, with a relatively high share of companies reporting labor shortages and a significant increase in wages, will further contribute to the growth of real income. Inflation will continue to decline and gradually approach the ECB’s target level of nearly 2% by early 2025, but risks remain due to pressure on wage growth.

Slowing Growth in Emerging Markets

Economic activity in emerging and developing markets in the region Europe and Central Asia is likely to slow this year as a weak global economy, tightened monetary policy, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and lower commodity prices reduce growth prospects, according to the World Bank’s Economic Update report published today for this region.

Growth in the region is likely to slow to 2.8% this year after a significant increase to 3.3% in 2023, when the economies of Russia and war-torn Ukraine began to grow again, aided by a stronger recovery in Central Asia. Regional output is likely to remain largely unchanged in 2025.

Several unfavorable circumstances are affecting the outlook. Weaker-than-expected recovery of key trading partners, particularly in the euro area, restrictive monetary policies, and worsening geopolitical developments could further slow growth.

– Countries in Europe and Central Asia continue to face multiple crises, exacerbated by the slowdown in global economic growth. Reviving productivity growth by fostering business dynamism and increasing resilience to climate change risks can protect the region’s population and accelerate economic growth – said Antonella Bassani, Vice President of the World Bank for the Europe and Central Asia region.

Weak growth will further slow the region’s recovery from recent shocks such as the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pandemic, and the cost-of-living crisis in 2022.

In emerging and developing markets in the region Europe and Central Asia, inflation has decreased faster than expected, mainly due to a sharp decline in energy and food prices. The median annual inflation rate of consumer prices in the region fell from 15% at the beginning of 2023 to 4.2% by February 2024. Nevertheless, the cost-of-living crisis from 2022 continues to affect households, even though real income increased last year.

Recovery in Ukraine is expected to slow to 3.2% this year from 4.8% in 2023, reflecting a weaker harvest and ongoing labor shortages. Economic prospects for Ukraine continue to depend on donor support and the duration of the Russian invasion. According to recent estimates by the World Bank and partner institutions, the cost of rebuilding and recovery in Ukraine has risen to $486 billion, more than double the size of its pre-war economy in 2021.

This year, growth in Turkey is also likely to weaken to 3%, the lowest level since 2009, excluding pandemic years, as macroeconomic consolidation is expected to limit domestic demand. Restraint on global oil prices will weaken prospects in Central Asia, with growth slowing from an estimated 5.5% in 2023 to 4.1% this year.

Companies Need Long-Term Financing

The report includes a special chapter on harnessing the strength of the private sector. It notes that economic development in the region is a story of transitioning from a planned to a market economy, extensive and in-depth structural reforms, and the emergence of private initiative, the main driver of growth and prosperity.

In less than three decades, 12 countries from this region have joined the European Union. The transition of these countries to market economies integrated into the EU, with stable institutions and production structures, is proof of the success of the in-depth reforms of some of these countries, which have also become high-income countries.

– The private sector in several countries in the region faces barriers that hinder its expansion and innovation. To increase business dynamism, it will be necessary to address several challenges in areas such as enhancing market competition, reducing state intervention in the economy, improving the quality of education, and increasing access to financing for businesses – said Ivailo Izvorski, Chief Economist of the World Bank for the Europe and Central Asia region.

Encouraging market competition and free markets should focus on reducing barriers to entry and facilitating the exit of unproductive firms from the market. The significant presence of state-owned enterprises is also a major obstacle to leveling the playing field for private companies.

The problems of private enterprises include an inadequately educated workforce and a significant skills shortage, which greatly hampers growth. High rates of emigration of young and skilled workers do not help in the short term. A better-educated workforce is associated with higher productivity and can lead to more innovation.

Bank loans to the private sector are at relatively low levels and have not increased in the past decade. Additionally, lending is mostly more short-term. To increase productivity and innovation, businesses need access to long-term financing.

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