The current 18 percent drop in Bitcoin before halving is not unusual and is on schedule

Bitcoin is in the first phase of its halving mini cycle and is on track according to predictions from crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

According to a tweet, the 18 percent drop in Bitcoin over the past weeks was expected, as similar drops occurred before the second and third halvings. This drop indicates that Bitcoin could repeat the same price performance seen in previous cycles, including a rise after the halving that could propel the largest cryptocurrency to greater growth above the current peak of $73,700.

Bitcoin is moving exactly on schedule

The three phases of Bitcoin’s halving mini cycle include: a drop before the halving, reaccumulation, and parabolic upward trend. The first phase usually occurs 28 to 14 days before the event and can last for weeks. The second phase comes after the drop has reached a bottom and can last up to five months, while the third can last more than a year.

During the halving in 2016, the drop was 38 percent and lasted four days. In 2020, the drop was 20 percent and lasted eight weeks. Approximately 12 days from the halving, Bitcoin has dropped by about 18 percent in the last three weeks.

Rekt Capital noted that this cycle has shown some qualities from 2016 and 2020 and, as a result, could repeat parts of its price trends before the halving.

Despite this, Rekt Capital wrote that the goals of the pre-halving drop period include offering a final opportunity for favorable buying, setting up the next phase in this particular cycle, and forming the lowest level of the future reaccumulation range.

Beginning of the reaccumulation phase

Data suggests that Bitcoin may be at the beginning of the reaccumulation phase. With a resistance level at $70,000, Rekt Capital says the market may have established a high reaccumulation range.

Since reaccumulation comes after the drop reaches a bottom, it is also possible that a bottom has occurred before the halving. Now the goal, according to Rekt Capital, is for Bitcoin to trade steadily until the halving and beyond.

Namely, this is the first time that the reaccumulation range is developing around a new peak. This could shorten the duration of the phase and cause the range to take the form of regular stable movement that the market has seen so far.

This is also the first time that Bitcoin has reached a new peak before the halving, which according to analyst Bob Loukas may indicate a shorter bull market cycle, as opposed to the usual 4-year cycle. The mentioned analyst expressed his opinion in a new video on YouTube and gave a 60 percent probability for the so-called ‘left translated cycle’ as he calls it, based on the thesis that Bitcoin could reach a new cyclical peak by the end of this year.