Crises are piling up one after another with no end in sight: the coronavirus pandemic was followed by massive inflation, bankruptcies of major business players, and geopolitical conflicts. Unfortunately, companies must prepare for even more: forecasts suggest that the next six years leading up to 2030 could become the toughest phase for companies in decades. Only those who look ahead and position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities offered by artificial intelligence (AI), new technologies, sustainability, and strategic resilience will survive in the next decade. Dean of WU Executive Academy Barbara Stöttinger and strategy and sustainability expert Vladimir Preveden analyzed the underlying reasons for this situation and potential solutions that will help companies thrive even after 2030.
– Companies and their managers find it difficult to think strategically about future developments and the opportunities and risks they will bring. This is all the more reason to prepare for the structural changes ahead. The coming years will shake things to the core, so it is high time for companies, especially the top ‘C-suite’ management, to take action if they want to remain relevant in the future – warns Stöttinger.
—
—
Forecasting Opportunities
Preveden explains that we are currently in the midst of the fifth and sixth waves of development since the beginning of the industrial revolution. In the first four waves, society encountered mechanization, celebrated the steam engine, and experienced a boom in industrial production, as well as the rise of industries such as electronics, telecommunications, and aviation. Since around 1985, companies have been ‘riding’ the fifth wave. Digitalization and the Internet have had a transformative effect on the economy and society like no other development before. We have already been in the sixth wave for several years: sustainability and climate protection have brought green issues to the forefront and made us more aware of social justice.
Each new wave has prompted a fundamental reorganization of values, which in turn has changed the structure of society – and with it, the structure of the economy, explains Preveden. These waves have also led to new forms of companies: digitalization and the Internet have, for example, spawned large tech companies such as Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. The current overlap of the two latest waves will produce similar effects.
The mentioned transformation of values usually occurs in an S-shape – initially barely noticeable, but then accelerating sharply, leaving companies surprised. Such a development is likely to occur in the current two waves as well. Although it is difficult for us to grasp this, as our brains tend to think linearly, this development is an important lesson for companies.
– To stay on top or, at the very least, to be part of the game, instead of resting on our laurels, we must anticipate opportunities for our business that are likely to arise from the overlap of the two current waves. In this sense, two areas will be particularly interesting in the next six years – says Preveden.
The first area consists of four key technologies: quantum computing, artificial intelligence, crypto, and blockchain, as well as the metaverse, while the second area encompasses sustainability. The coincidence of the two waves makes the current situation specific, but at the same time complex and demanding for strategic management. Stöttinger and Preveden identified four main technological developments that are likely to drive transformation in the coming years. These four technologies will be unavoidable in the years to come.
– Among managers, there is usually a misconception that they need to thoroughly understand these technologies. However, they need not worry about that. It is essential not to close our eyes to these trends and to see them as an opportunity rather than a threat – says Preveden.
Quantum Computing
What makes quantum computers special? They do not operate like our average computer at all. While bits in a traditional computer recognize only 0 and 1, so-called quantum bits (or qubits) recognize states between 0 and 1 and, thanks to superpositions, can be in multiple states simultaneously. This immensely accelerates calculations. According to forecasts, such supercomputers will be ready for mass production by 2030, which also means they will become affordable by then.
– This will have a huge impact on simulation methods, data analysis, forecasting models, predictions, and many other areas – says Preveden.
It will also turn everything we thought we knew about cybersecurity upside down: most passwords currently in use, including the most complex ones, could easily be decrypted using such super-fast computers.
– Additionally, the number of so-called deepfakes will rise to previously unknown levels. It will become much harder to distinguish what is real and what is virtual, and we can only speculate about the impact this will have on society, the economy, and politics – adds Stöttinger.
Artificial Intelligence
Generative artificial intelligence based on language models has been continuously and rapidly developing in recent years. But only recently have even non-experts become aware of the endless possibilities this offers.
– Most managers have yet to start using AI tools or at least consider potential scenarios for their application. This is a significant mistake because, at some point, it will become impossible to close the technological gap that will open – says Preveden, convinced that artificial intelligence will continue to generate new business opportunities, but also risks.
Moreover, existing AI models based on machine learning are advancing at a breathtaking pace.
Crypto and Blockchain Technology
Cryptocurrencies have long been in vogue and are often used to secure ownership rights (referring to Non-Fungible Tokens or NFTs).
– Crypto and blockchain technology on which everything is based will increasingly gain strength as fundamental technologies in the years to come – says Preveden, citing three examples to prove his claim: decentralized finance (DeFi), supply chain transparency, and digital identity.
Thanks to blockchain, in the future, we will be able to decentralize traditional financial services. Smart contracts will allow us to use services such as investing money to earn interest, taking loans, and trading without the mediation of financial institutions, which will greatly increase efficiency and accessibility. Blockchain can be used for reliable documentation of transactions, making it ideal for managing supply chains. It will help companies accurately track the origin and routes of products, contributing to quality assurance and combating counterfeiting. Blockchain technology can be used for secure management of digital identities. It enhances data protection and online verification processes as users gain greater control over their personal data and can share it in a secure and verifiable manner.
– These examples highlight the potential of crypto and blockchain to disrupt established business models and transform a wide range of industries by making systems that are more efficient, transparent, and secure available – adds Stöttinger.
Metaverse
The metaverse is a virtual space enabled by technologies such as virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and blockchain. A number of companies are currently working on developing a digital environment in the metaverse.
– The arrival of ChatGPT last year pushed the metaverse to the background, both in the media and in public discourse. As a result, many managers believe it was a short-lived hype or that it is only interesting to gamers or young people – says Stöttinger.
However, nothing could be further from the truth: the metaverse is here to stay, and entire cities have already established their virtual versions there.
– Brands like Nike, Gucci, and Adidas are more likely to expand into the metaverse than to try to break into a new market in the real world – says Stöttinger.
And that is wise: these companies are using the metaverse to create new customer experiences, digitize their brands, and attract a younger target audience that is more tech-savvy. They have realized that the metaverse offers a new and innovative way to interact with customers and showcase products in a constantly evolving digital landscape.
More than Emissions
In addition to changing the technological paradigm, there is another topic that managers should pay attention to: the impact of ongoing structural changes in the area of sustainability. The EU has committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and 2030 is an important milestone on that path. As a result, there are already a large number of regulations for companies, many of which will soon change from highly recommended to mandatory.
– Company leaders may complain about this now, but the efforts required of them have a strength that will hopefully strengthen the European economy in the long term, especially exports. However, only those companies and managers who are future-oriented, strategically agile, and proactively engage with opportunities, rather than being solely obsessed with compliance, will reap such benefits – says Preveden.
Climate protection is a very broad area, and public discourse does not always highlight that breadth. It is not just about emissions; what we need to observe are energy production and dependence on it, the circular economy, and biodiversity. Moreover, sustainability is not only about environmental and climate protection but also extends to issues such as social responsibility, regional value creation, and ethics.
– Companies simply cannot afford to view this central, decisive issue and its wide implications from a narrow communication and marketing perspective. They need a strategic approach, with the question: how can we contribute to the well-being of our planet and society while simultaneously creating a competitive advantage for the company through sustainability measures? Finding a good answer to this question will help companies increase their strategic resilience – concludes Preveden.
Society is changing, and so is the economy – and companies should keep pace with that. The year 2030 will come faster than we think. Companies and managers who want to secure their business for the future can no longer wait to seek opportunities at the intersection of the two waves, digitalization and the Internet on one side, and sustainability on the other. There are many opportunities waiting to be explored – better sooner than later.
