Ante Šalinović (Ipsos Connect): Politicians and their ideas are products just like toothpaste

Ante Šalinović, despite an interesting career in the research sector and a directorial position at Ipsos Connect, a business unit of Ipsos Pulse that combines media research and advertising, where he is responsible for eight countries in the region, is largely an unknown figure to the public – until the start of the political campaign ahead of the elections, when we often see and hear him commenting on public opinion research across all media platforms, which was also the reason for our conversation with him. He does not delve into the merits of messages, does not comment on candidates and parties; he is not, he immediately distances himself, a political analyst and commentator. And better, anyone can be that today. He will only say that he is a representative of the sector that researches public opinion, although the surveys conducted by this sector often determine not only the course of campaigns, as we have witnessed since last Friday when President Zoran Milanović announced that he would be the SDP candidate for prime minister.

It is a super election year for us, we assume that research on all this year’s elections has long begun at Ipsos.

– Yes, political parties and their campaign leaders, internal or external, are quite intensively using our services. Otherwise, political parties use our services even when there are no elections, to see how some new legislative measures they intend to propose will affect citizens, what the needs of citizens are when new laws define certain issues, and so on. But, of course, now we are mostly conducting political research on voter preferences for national and European elections, even for presidential ones. Indeed, we are already conducting quite a bit of research for local elections, which will be held in 2025.

How are these surveys actually conducted?

– Theory says that field research for political surveys is the most reliable, but the research profession has learned to use telephone surveys as a valid and reliable method of data collection. People mistakenly think that interviewers only call landlines, which no one uses anymore, and that is not true; we also call mobile phones. The profession has learned to obtain valid results by phone, and since such surveys are faster and simpler, most of them are conducted this way. We only struggle with workforce, like everyone else. We also have a problem finding interviewers.

What do political parties want to investigate before the elections?

– Everything is investigated. Three key themes are researched in preparation for the campaign. The first is, of course, the current rating. The second is research on potential at a personal and individual level, to see which person attracts voters the most and who is perceived in public as the one who is credible to present a certain topic, not only because of their ranking on the list but also generally because of who will represent the campaign. The third thing that is most researched are topics relevant to citizens, which shape communication in campaigns.

Does the perception of credibility win elections?

– Yes. It does not matter whether that person has justified credibility, but whether they have it in the minds of other people, i.e., voters. Only that influences the choice of who they will vote for. This sociological theorem underpins all marketing, not just political. After all, politicians and their ideas are products just like toothpaste. The same marketing tools are used by both toothpaste manufacturers and political parties. One wants to win over consumers, the other voters, but the principle is the same. Thomas’s theorem defines it: what matters is what people think about something, not the essence of that product. If people think the product is good, they will buy it; if they think the politician is credible, even though there is actually no evidence for it, they will vote for them.

What kind of campaigns are successful today, what topics are current, what actually determines the outcome of elections, how much companies use their services and for what, read in the continuation of the interview in the new digital and printed edition of Lider.