How This Bitcoin Bull Run Differs from All Previous Ones

The current crypto bull run differs from its predecessors in several significant ways. Bitcoin has gone through three halvings so far. The first was in 2012, followed by another in 2016, and the most recent occurred in 2020. Bitcoin reached new peaks in previous cycles only after each halving.

In contrast, this time Bitcoin has already surpassed its previous peak set in 2021. Just last week, Bitcoin surged above 70,000 dollars, which is significant considering the upcoming halving scheduled for mid-April.

Defying Historical Patterns

What stands out most about this rise is the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs on U.S. exchanges, which is a novelty in the digital asset industry.

Renowned analyst PlanB reiterated this view, suggesting a deviation from historical patterns. A visual analysis of past movement charts alongside the current trajectory highlighted significant differences.

PlanB also pointed out a common misconception about halving. Historically, markets have not anticipated the effects of such an event, but this time there are speculations that the effects of the halving may already be priced into Bitcoin’s value.

However, this was also the case for previous such events, and it proved false as the market finds it very difficult to price in something as drastic as a reduction in supply creation.

Dramatic Change in the Halving Cycle

According to another prominent analyst, Rekt Capital, there are usually four phases in the cycle.

The first is the rise before the halving, which occurs about 60 days before the event and is marked by an increase in Bitcoin’s price to new local peaks. Then comes the drop before the halving, where short-term traders sell their positions to realize profits, leading to a temporary price pullback.

The second phase includes the final drop before the halving, which occurs closer to the event itself and involves a deeper pullback in Bitcoin’s price, a trend seen in previous cycles.

The next phase is the reaccumulation phase, where Bitcoin’s price consolidates for several months after the halving. Rekt Capital noted that in this cycle, the reaccumulation range coincides with a new all-time high area, potentially leading to a shorter and less volatile reaccumulation phase.

Finally, the analyst also predicted the beginning of a parabolic upward trend phase characterized by accelerated growth in Bitcoin’s price. However, the analyst suggests that this phase could be shorter than in previous cycles due to a potentially accelerated market cycle.

– Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year; however, with a potentially accelerated cycle occurring right now, this number could be halved in this market cycle – wrote the analyst.

The accelerated pace of growth, evidently driven by exceptionally high institutional demand, prompted another well-known Bitcoin analyst Bob Lukas to develop a theory about the so-called left-translated cycle. The idea is based on speculation that the next new peak for Bitcoin in this bull market could be reached as early as this year.

For now, these are just estimates, as it is, of course, impossible to predict when the peak will actually occur, but it is useful to consider different perspectives and take them into account.