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Japan narrowly avoided a technical recession

Japan seems to have avoided falling into a technical recession after revised official data on economic growth. The revised data shows that the gross domestic product (GDP) was 0.4 percent higher in the last three months of 2023 compared to the previous year, reported Reuters.

Preliminary data released last month showed a second consecutive quarter of economic decline, and it is worth noting that two consecutive quarters of economic decline are typically considered the definition of a technical recession. The revised figures are still below expectations, as some economists had predicted a GDP revision in the fourth quarter of about one percent upward.

Hopes that Japan has sidestepped recession were bolstered last week when data from the Ministry of Finance showed a sharp increase in the amounts companies invested in their businesses.

However, data from the Japanese cabinet on Monday shows that private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, fell by 0.3 percent during that period.

Japan’s uneven economic performance could experience another decline in the current quarter due to the impact of issues including the slowing economy of neighboring China, as well as the suspension of production by car manufacturer Daihatsu.

The upward revision of GDP in the fourth quarter came as expectations rise that the country’s central bank may soon raise interest rates. As we have previously reported, there has been speculation for over a year that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would raise rates, but this has not yet happened as it patiently waited to see whether global economies are truly capable of enduring high rates for an extended period.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept rates at -0.1 percent since it lowered borrowing costs below zero in 2016 in an attempt to stimulate consumption and investment.

As expected, negative rates make the yen less attractive to global investors, which has pushed the value of the currency down.

The main Japanese stock index, Nikkei 225, was about 2.5 percent lower on Monday morning.

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