After a prolonged period, the price of crude oil is stable at $78 per barrel, and market calm has been achieved due to expectations that OPEC+ and other major producers will extend the practice of voluntary crude oil output reduction, writes Hrvoje Stojić, an economist at HUP, in weekly analyses.
He adds that it is therefore turbulent on the other side of the market, where, according to Kpler data, U.S. diesel exports have nearly halved compared to January. The main reason for this reduction is significantly lower refining activity across U.S. refineries due to consecutive plant maintenance. In previous months, the U.S. significantly increased diesel exports to Europe, taking advantage of the supply shortage from Russia. For these reasons, distillate stocks in the U.S. have decreased, which in turn means rising tensions and problems in the EU market, which is already ‘struggling’ with reduced supply due to the conflict in the Red Sea. Oil stocks in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp are even 15% lower than the average for this time of year, and Russia is introducing a six-month ban on gasoline exports starting March 1. Therefore, the price of oil could soon rise above $80 per barrel again.
