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JPMorgan’s Chief Strategist and Surprising Predictions for 2024

JPMorgan’s Chief Strategist, Michael Cembalest, has compiled a list of his ‘Ten Surprises for 2024, predicting Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, power shortages in the U.S., and a boycott of autonomous cars.

The list of ten surprises was compiled in honor of former strategist Byron Wien after he passed away at the age of 90, having spent the last 38 years making such annual predictions.

Probably the biggest surprise on the list of predictions compiled by Cembalest is that President Joe Biden will withdraw from the election for health reasons. Cembalest even goes a step further, predicting that the 81-year-old will step down between Super Tuesday, when most U.S. states hold primary elections and party caucuses, all happening in November.

Cembalest states that the president will cite health reasons as the cause for his withdrawal from the race before handing the torch to a successor appointed by the National Democratic Committee. In his prediction, he noted that few people trust Biden regarding the economy, only 37 percent, while 57 percent of respondents trust Trump concerning the economy. Biden’s boasting about ‘Bidenomics‘ has also failed, as only a miserable two percent of respondents said the economy was ‘excellent’ during his term.

At the end of December last year, a DailyMail poll showed that Trump is now increasing his lead over President Biden by four points. The results indicate that the former president has gained independent voters, while Biden’s support has fallen both within his own party and among women.

Other issues for Biden include serious concerns about his age, with 71 percent of respondents believing he is ‘too old.’ This is supported by a series of falls, stumbles, forgetfulness, and mumbling at various events.

David Axelrod, the man who helped Barack Obama’s 2008 White House campaign, has spoken out, stating that age is a huge problem for Democrats and that there is no visible solution.

Autonomous Vehicles

An interesting prediction from Cembalest is that there will be a major boycott of driverless cars, precisely those that Mate assures us will be driving around Zagreb by 2026. He says the resistance will come due to safety issues. Such vehicles have become predominant in San Francisco, and the taxi company Cruise is struggling with safety problems. Cruise’s CEO Kyle Vogt resigned amid the recall of their 950 cars after one of the vehicles ran over a woman and dragged her 20 meters down the sidewalk. Additionally, in September, two driverless vehicles blocked an ambulance carrying a critically injured traffic accident victim, who later died in the hospital. Cembalest also noted that Tesla is having issues with its vehicles after ordering a recall of more than two million vehicles last month.

Power and Gas Outages

Cembalest also pointed out potential problems that major cities could face, including power and gas outages. Citing a risk assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation for 2023, their estimates indicate that large parts of the North American electric power system are at risk of insufficient electricity supply during peak winter conditions. According to their assessment, prolonged cold snaps over a wide area ‘threaten the reliable performance of the mass production of the electric power system and the availability of natural gas. States currently exposed to increased risk of power loss during the winter months include New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Tennessee.

In addition to the above, Cembalest stated that he believes there will be a breakthrough in the development of an inhalable Covid vaccine. He added that he expects the inhalation version of the vaccine to be released for sale sometime this year, and who will want to use it remains an unanswered question.

Among other predictions, Cembalest believes that the U.S. dollar will remain stable and that the Department of Justice and/or the Federal Trade Commission will win one of their major antitrust cases currently underway. Cembalest also believes that discussions about Argentine President Milei opposing the U.S. dollar will fail if implemented.

He also predicted that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue to drag on without a ceasefire and that U.S. regional banks will perform well throughout the year.

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