Vučić did not call for extraordinary elections because he has to, but because he can

Johnny Depp alias Captain Sparrow (in ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’) has found a lost gold coin in Serbia. With the help of Aleksandar Vučić, his election campaign, and TikTok. A video montage featuring Johnny and Aca in the lead roles is being shared and commented on.

Vučić has once again shown that he knows no boundaries in election campaigning. And now both can dedicate themselves to archival plum brandy even before the election results are announced. After all, the extraordinary parliamentary elections, which are held on Sunday, were not called by Serbian President Vučić because he had to, because he was forced by legal deadlines, opposition, or some external political pressure. As a master of using extraordinary elections to consolidate power, he decided on another round to demonstrate his control over Serbia and further confirm the legitimacy of the parliamentary majority for the next two to three years, during which a new, reset geopolitical picture of Europe and its broader ‘foyer’ should emerge.

Already next year, the challenges are indeed significant: elections in Russia with a predetermined outcome, extremely uncertain elections in the USA, and European elections acting as a political barometer in between. In addition, there are two major wars: Russia against Ukraine and Israel against Hamas, which will likely end with some compromise temporary peace, but also with the possibility of opening new surrounding hotspots.

A Trader on the Geopolitical Exchange

Among the greats, Vučić ranks well. Vladimir Putin still considers him an important ally of the Russian world. The USA has forgiven him for the illegal incursion into Kosovo and the attempt to open a new war hotspot, appreciating that Vučić is willing to back down when he gets reprimanded. The EU remains his main trading partner and financier, with a tacit agreement from both sides that Serbia’s European path is deeply frozen for the coming decades. China is satisfied because two months ago Xi and Aleksandar further strengthened their ‘steel friendship’ with a Free Trade Agreement that solidified Serbia’s status as an important European foothold for the Chinese geopolitical project ‘Belt and Road‘ (from which Italy recently withdrew, recognizing its membership as a mistake).

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For the great powers, such an Aleksandar Vučić, who completely controls Serbia and plays predictably, is actually good. Therefore, these parliamentary elections in Serbia are not perceived as a political uncertainty. It is also known that in politics, Vučić behaves like a trader on the geopolitical exchange, in commerce, with a high risk of dependency, with the main goal of increasing Serbia’s geopolitical gain by trading Serbian stocks. The bigger problem with Vučić is faced by the smaller states from his neighborhood, those that are the subject of the desires and plans of the ‘Serbian world’. Because, in the end, the realization of the ‘Serbian world’ project is the main goal, almost an obsession, of all Vučić’s geopolitical acrobatics and trading.

In times of great geopolitical upheavals and rearrangements like those ahead of us, it is not unusual for smaller states to settle some of their geopolitical ambitions at the expense of compromises made by great powers. After all, both Yugoslavias (1918 and 1945) were created in such periods and both collapsed (1941 and 1991) as part of broader geopolitical processes in which Serbia was the most important regional actor. For the states in Serbia’s vicinity – Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, BiH – today the important question is what concessions the West (USA) is willing to give Serbia as part of a new compromise with Russia. And how to prevent that. The results of the census in Montenegro, which is currently underway under the control of pro-Serbian parties, are therefore more important for the regional geopolitical resolution than yet another election in Serbia. Kosovo, as a nationally homogeneous and strong NATO stronghold, is less questionable. But for geopolitical stability, it would be important to find a way for the western integration of BiH and to reduce Russian-Serbian influence.

Croatia is His Central Target

Croatia, of course, is not excluded from Vučić’s ‘Serbian world’ simply because it is fully integrated into NATO and the EU, but it remains his central target. Therefore, it is necessary to restore an active geopolitical component to Croatian state policy, which has been neglected for the past two decades in favor of mere adherence to Western policies. Even when Berlin and Paris or Budapest and Vienna perceive the western integration of Serbia as strengthening European security for their own reasons or misconceptions, the Croatian security system and state policy should view Vučić’s ‘Serbian world’ in all its manifestations and operations as a project of threat and destabilization – both for Croatia and the region and Europe. And when he threatens like Aleksandar Vulin. And when he sings like Aleksandra Prijović.