VanEck predicts that bitcoin will reach a new peak in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The asset management company VanEck has presented its forecasts for 2024, predicting not only record levels for bitcoin but also a peak in the NFT market, signaling a significant transformation in the industry.

VanEck expects that the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs will align with the prolonged anticipation of a recession in the U.S., while the upcoming halving event may not generate as much impact as previously expected.

A new peak for bitcoin, but without the flippening of ethereum in 2024.

According to VanEck’s forecast, bitcoin could reach its highest value in the fourth quarter of 2024. With increased optimism regarding the easing of the contradictory regulatory stance of the SEC, bitcoin could reach a new all-time high on November 9, exactly three years from its last peak in November 2021.

VanEck does not expect ethereum to surpass bitcoin’s market capitalization. Despite a strong performance in 2024, they predict that ethereum will experience a decrease in market share as other smart contract blockchains, such as Solana, gain strength due to clearer and less uncertain scalability plans.

VanEck also stated that the fourth bitcoin halving scheduled for April 2024 will occur with minimal drama. As the issuance of new bitcoins is halved, unprofitable miners are likely to withdraw, allowing those with profitable energy sources to gain a larger market share.

Milestones for Binance and DEXs

Following Binance’s $4.3 billion settlement with U.S. regulators, VanEck expects it to lose its position as the largest centralized crypto exchange. Competitors such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget, backed by significant funding, are ready to compete for the top spot.

As Binance undergoes rigorous DOJ scrutiny, VanEck predicts that Coinbase’s international futures market will advance and exceed a daily volume of $1 billion, a significant increase from approximately $200 million per day in November 2023.

They expect that the market share of spot cryptocurrency trading on decentralized exchanges (DEX) will reach new levels, driven by an improved trading experience enabled by high-throughput blockchains like Solana.

At the same time, the adoption of significantly enhanced crypto wallets, which integrate account abstraction as a key feature enabling automated payments, will contribute to a larger number of users engaging in on-chain transactions and embracing self-custody solutions.