Research: Citizens’ trust in the state, media, and politics at an all-time low

In addition to the fact that 92.4 percent of citizens are concerned about rising prices, more than two-thirds of citizens have experienced a decline in purchasing power in the past year (7.8 percentage points higher than last year), as shown by the most pessimistic results of the Zero Quadrant, the fourth annual survey on the attitudes, beliefs, fears, and expectations of Croatian citizens conducted by Val Grupa in collaboration with Ipsos.

This most pessimistic edition of the Zero Quadrant indicates the largest communication gap to date – between what business and political elites do and what citizens expect from them. In other words, in most of this year’s business and political decisions, there was a lack of courage and knowledge for deep changes that citizens will feel in the quality of their daily lives, even more so in the quality of communication.

Distrust in the state and media

Thus, never before has there been such a high level of distrust in the state, local authorities, and the media, joined by insurance companies, banks, and telecommunications companies, with no sector recording an increase in citizens’ trust.

Challenging economic issues in the year ahead are joined by new hot topics such as immigrants, whose arrival is noticed by more than two-thirds of citizens, but only 23.6 percent support it. One of the most important issues is the mental health of children and youth, which 85.5 percent of citizens see as a major problem that society should prioritize. At the same time, it is concerning that as many as a quarter of citizens (26.5 percent) would avoid vaccinating their children if at all possible, and this would be done to a greater extent by respondents with completed primary and secondary education and those living in households with the lowest incomes.

– The most pessimistic annual optimism index, the additional decline in trust in all sectors that form the foundation of a democratic society, and the growing general concern of citizens require business and political elites to make fewer compromises and take more courageous steps and improve communication. The results of the research impose three priority areas that require urgent action: curbing rising prices, an immigration integration policy that would reconcile the pressing needs of the labor market and cultural coexistence, and establishing support for the mental health of children and youth – says Nina Išek Međugorac, executive director of Val Grupa.

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Nina Išek Međugorac

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She concludes that the fact that knowledge is still the most important resource, which 85 percent of citizens see as the most profitable investment, gives hope, which is also the only finding of the research that shows a positive growth trend over these four years.

Immigration issues

Looking ahead to the super election year, it is quite possible that the issue of immigration, which is directly related to the extremely poor demographic circumstances in which Croatia finds itself, will become one of the most important political issues. On the other hand, mental health of children and youth is not ‘attractive’, in terms of ideological divisions, so it may not receive the deserved attention during next year’s election campaigns, even though citizens believe it is the most important public policy that key decision-makers should address.

Every other citizen blames the state for inflation

The rise in living costs has been significantly influenced by inflation, and half of the respondents blame the state for this, while only 20.5 percent believe that external factors such as the war in Ukraine are responsible. Thus, despite government measures to curb inflation, it seems that this message has not clearly and successfully reached citizens. Interestingly, since the beginning of 2023, nominal and real wages have been rising, as has citizens’ purchasing power, but this cumulative growth has still not compensated for the decline in purchasing power in the previous year. If employers continue with unrealistic wage increases in 2024 due to labor shortages, it opens the door for a new inflationary cycle and further reduction in purchasing power.

Corporate actions for the benefit of society are either poorly understood or exist in traces

Although 2023 has been marked by public appearances of many companies in the field of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG), the truth is that they are still not embedded in business strategies, but are mostly a combination of greenwashing and poor communication. As the results of this research suggest, the impression is that companies have predominantly dealt with inflation, trying to shift its effects onto citizens. Only one in ten respondents believes that companies in Croatia are socially responsible in their operations and care about community issues, not just profit.

Consumers perceive poorly what companies are doing in the segment of environmental, social, and corporate governance, which is in great disproportion to how important it is to them and how much it motivates them to purchase products and services. Here, the principle of caring for the health and safety of employees stands out, with 85 percent of consumers believing that it is a priority for companies to care for the health and safety of their employees. This is also a key principle that motivates consumers to purchase products and services. Almost 70 percent of consumers claim that the principle of socially responsible business, which includes companies caring about community issues, not just profit, is a key factor influencing their purchasing decisions. This insight should motivate the corporate sector to approach this issue strategically in the coming year, especially since only one in ten consumers believes that companies in Croatia actually do this.

Least satisfaction with state institutions

Citizens continue to show the least satisfaction with state institutions, with only 12.2 percent being extremely or mostly satisfied, followed by local government institutions and companies, as well as the media. All sectors record a decline in satisfaction, while the weakest result is recorded by insurance companies, with which only 23.7 percent of citizens are satisfied.

Compared to previous years, trust in most sectors has again fallen. No sector records an increase in trust, and seven of them have maintained citizens’ trust at the level of last year’s research; the highest trust is enjoyed by service activities. Three-fifths of respondents generally or completely trust their hairdressers, manicurists, and beauticians (59 percent), and there is a slight upward trend in satisfaction with private health services (48.5 percent), with citizens being twice as satisfied with them compared to public services (26.2 percent). Among those with the lowest consumer trust are insurance companies, which are generally or completely trusted by only 14.5 percent of consumers.

Continuation of declining optimism ahead of the super election year

The number of citizens who expect their quality of life to be slightly worse than now has decreased from 28.5 percent to 24.1 percent, indicating stagnation in pessimism, but despite this, optimism has slightly declined. More citizens, 35.3 percent, now believe that their quality of life will remain unchanged, compared to 29.6 percent from last year.

People are most pessimistic about the economic situation in the country – 56.9 percent believe it will be slightly or much worse in the coming years, while optimism is present regarding issues they can influence themselves, such as employment status and romantic and emotional relationships.

– In four years of research, our optimism index is the most pessimistic to date, people are more worried about everything, they feel the decline in purchasing power strongly, they fear immigrants, but they are most concerned about the mental state of their children and youth. People simply expect a stronger and clearer social engagement from business and politics, and the only thing they see as salvation is investing in knowledge – their own and their children’s knowledge – concluded Išek.