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From $12 to $38,000: The Eleventh Anniversary of the First Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, experienced its first halving on this day 11 years ago. As the community celebrates the anniversary, it is the right time to reconsider some of Bitcoin’s historical milestones ahead of the next halving expected in April 2024.

The first Bitcoin transaction took place nearly 15 years ago on January 3, 2009, a few months after the pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, published the Bitcoin white paper in October 2008.

On November 28, 2012, three years and 10 months after mining the first block of Bitcoin, the first halving occurred. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at a price of around $12, according to StatMuse data, or 308,200 percent below the current price, according to CoinGecko data.

Although the issuance of new Bitcoins is halved and the supply cap of the digital currency at 21 million is not directly described in Nakamoto’s white paper, the document still hints at certain mechanisms for controlling the creation of new Bitcoins.

– To compensate for the increase in hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the difficulty in proof-of-work is determined by a moving average that targets the average number of blocks per hour. If they are generated too quickly, the mining difficulty increases – states the white paper.

Unlike some basic information in the white paper, the aspect of halving is mentioned in the original Bitcoin code. Halving is specifically available in the Bitcoin Core GitHub repository in the validation.cpp file and indicates that the mining block subsidy is halved every 210,000 blocks, which will occur every four years.

The halving mechanism for Bitcoin is programmed into the mining algorithm to combat inflation by maintaining scarcity.

Before the first halving occurred, miners received a reward of up to 50 Bitcoins per block. After the first halving in 2012, the subsidy was reduced to 25 Bitcoins, followed by the second halving in 2016, which reduced the subsidy to 12.5 Bitcoins. The most recent halving took place in 2020, reducing the block subsidy from 12.5 to 6.25 Bitcoins.

As each halving significantly increases the scarcity of the cryptocurrency, these events have historically impacted the price cycle of Bitcoin. Just one year after the first halving, Bitcoin rose to nearly $1,000, while the second halving triggered a 350 percent increase in the year following the event, with Bitcoin subsequently reaching its then all-time high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017.

After the third halving, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

The anniversary of the first halving comes as the community awaits the fourth, which is currently expected on April 17, 2024. Many Bitcoin advocates are particularly optimistic about the price of Bitcoin in 2024 due to rising expectations that U.S. securities regulators may finally approve a spot ETF.

The 2024 halving will not be the last. The reward for Bitcoin miners is expected to be halved 34 times until it reaches 0 after all 21 million are mined. Based on the current schedule, the maximum supply will be reached around the year 2140.

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