Pre-election Economy: The Economy in the Shadow of Political Radicalization and State Pushes

Current events on the domestic political scene – from demands for military presence at the borders and the announcement of the organization of armed Sinj guards for protection against migrants to the new radicalization of the Vukovar Column of Remembrance – are a logical continuation of last week’s parliamentary opposition outcry triggered by the arrogance of the HDZ. All of this is a true announcement of the upcoming super-election year, especially the most important, parliamentary pre-election campaign.

It is already clear from the initial confrontations that the economy will again not be in the foreground. Miro Bulj and Ivan Penava present how the right spectrum will fiercely attack the government, which in turn responds with equal fervor. This is normal because the HDZ, as a moderate right party, can lose the most voters to more radical,’right-wing’ parties, primarily the Homeland Movement and Most. The ruling party responds with much less passion to accusations from the left because they believe they cannot win over its electoral body. The only exception is Zagreb, where the HDZ expects a better result based on criticism of the management of the metropolis.

Invisible Social Democrats

The more fiery criticism towards Tomislav Tomašević comes only from the remnants of Bandić’s party, which is in bankruptcy – not only in the commercial court but also politically. However, the fiercest opposition in Zagreb lately has been the Social Democrats. Although they are the largest opposition party in the Parliament, they lack identity and their rating is below one percent. Therefore, they use Zagreb as a testing ground. Davor Bernardić even called on Uskok to investigate the school renovation projects in the metropolis, harshly criticizing Tomašević’s waste collection method, and regarding the announcement of digging a tunnel under the center of Zagreb, he claims it is a revival of Bandić’s old project… Even if he does not achieve a better result in the parliamentary elections, it smells like he is preparing a candidacy for the mayor of Zagreb in the local elections in 2025.

Instead of concrete programs, most parties are currently forming partnerships. The Social Democrats seem to be aware of their weaknesses and are trying to coalition. However, Možemo! immediately rejected the SDP as a potential partner and announced that it would go alone to the elections. This will, of course, weaken the overall result of the left by several representatives due to the D’Hondt method, which favors winning lists, but Možemo! wants to check its rating. They did propose a ‘point coalition’ to the SDP – in certain electoral units – which the SDP rejected.

However, post-election coalitioning is not excluded. The SDP is currently left to fend for itself and Peđa Grbin as a candidate for the mandate. If they do not achieve a good result, the departure of the leader is possible, which would open the door for the return of the renegade faction. Until then, the Social Democrats are also looking for partners. In the alliance Our Croatia, they currently have HSS and the Croatian Laborists – the Labor Party, but it is a big question whether they can secure any parliamentary mandate. They have also talked to the eternal independent Damirom Vanđelićem and with the Independent Platform North of Međimurje County Mayor Matija Posavca (which includes the mayors of Ludbreg Dubravko Bilić and Ivanca Milorad Batinić). IDS has rejected them, but they are counting on the strongest Istrian party, the Reformists of Radimira Čačića, along with PGS and Fokus.

HDZ Collects Scraps

Možemo! will largely depend on (in)success in Zagreb and the ability to attract more voters inclined to social democracy but disappointed with the parties representing that option. There is also an interesting ‘challenger’ on the political scene Sandra Benčić, who figures as a party candidate for forming the government. The nervous reactions of the HDZ to her nomination show that the ruling party considers her a more serious threat than Grbin.

On the other side, Most has formed a coalition with the Croatian Sovereigntists, or defectors from the Homeland Movement, which has left open the possibility of only coalitioning with ‘constitutional port’ parties, meaning no coalition with SDSS and Možemo! Despite the latest escalation from Penava, they have not given up the possibility of post-election cooperation with the HDZ.

As for the strongest party, the HDZ is collecting scraps. By all accounts, they will continue cooperation with HSLS (Dario Hrebak) and HNS – the liberal democrats (Predrag Štromar). They would also like to win over the mayor of Pula, Filip Zoričić. However, the main task will be to achieve as large a difference as possible compared to DP, which is certainly a desirable partner for forming a parliamentary majority; it suits Plenković for Penava’s list to receive few mandates.

Pre-election Second Tube of Učka?

While pre-election alliances are being formed, there is no time for program alignment because some postulates will be suppressed due to cooperation with different political options and the principle of ‘wooden iron’.

The SDP is the only one that has already announced a pre-election economic program. The most interesting is certainly the outline of the reform of the profit tax system. According to the SDP’s idea, entrepreneurs who increase wages for workers and create additional profit will pay lower rates, while others, those who do not bear the burden of creating social equality, will be subjected to an extra profit tax. However, the same rates will not be applicable to all sectors, which will be further elaborated. I am eagerly awaiting that elaboration.

The position of the HDZ is, however, the clearest, whose pre-election program could be read from Plenković’s performance in Parliament last week. The budget continues to fill nicely (also) thanks to inflation and will be a key electoral lever for winning over the entire state and public sector, which can already count on double-digit wage growth next year. There is no doubt that a new, sixth package of subsidies will come in the spring, certainly rich, in line with the approach of the elections.

There is also a generous push from EU funds that enables the opening of a number of new infrastructure construction sites, with the road package particularly standing out in the ‘something for everyone’ system. The Prime Minister has promised that by Easter the rest of the Zagreb – Sisak highway will be opened, fast roads are being built to Koprivnica, Bjelovar, and Virovitica, and they are announcing routes to Požega and between Varaždin, Ivanca, and Krapina. Similar projects are being prepared on the Adriatic, with the largest interventions being Križišće – Žuta Lokva and, last but not least, the second tube of the Učka tunnel, which should be completed ‘by the tourist season’. I would not be surprised if the opening accidentally falls just before the parliamentary elections.