Futurist Martin Kruse: People Think We Predict the Future, But We Leave That to Astrologers and Economists

Through analyses of so-called megatrends, planning possible scenarios, assessing potential risks, and strategically forecasting situations, experts from the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS), one of the world leaders in this field, advise governments, companies, startups, and non-governmental organizations on how to address strategic challenges using futures studies methods.

One of the fifty experts at CIFS is senior advisor and futurist Martin Kruse, who leads research on the environment and resources and studies on forecasting and the future at the Institute. We spoke with Kruse ahead of his arrival in Zagreb, where he will hold a masterclass on megatrends on November 8 in collaboration with the Future Tense platform, which aims, among other things, to promote the concept of futures thinking in the Croatian business community. During the masterclass, Kruse will share knowledge and also aim to help build a mindset that considers and predicts various scenarios, viewing the future as an opportunity rather than a threat.

Can you provide some examples of megatrends we are encountering today? Why are these megatrends important?

– Megatrends define our world today and will also define the future. Urbanization is a megatrend that most people can relate to. It characterizes the change that occurs when society transitions from an originally agricultural to an industrial and knowledge-based society. This trend reached a historical turning point in 2008. That was the first year in human history when more people lived in cities than in rural areas. In the future, more and more people will live in urban areas. Urbanization has influenced several other megatrends, such as an increasing focus on sustainability and economic polarization. Sustainability because most solutions to curb greenhouse gas emissions will target emissions in cities, polarization because urbanization can spur polarization between the rich and the poor and between rural and urban areas.

What would megatrends actually be, and what do they mean for people, especially for business leaders?

– This polarization between rural and urban areas is a major concern in China because urbanization has caused a massive increase in wealth in cities compared to rural areas, which have not had similar favorable conditions. The rest of the world faces similar problems, creating fertile ground for populism as a voice for the disenfranchised. Why is this important? Well, as we have already seen, it has opened new questions about NATO stability, relations between the EU and the US, and relations between the US and China. In other words, the second and third-order effects of these megatrends define the strategic issues that shape the external world of governments and corporations.

How will these megatrends affect the future of the world?

– We are looking at a future that must adapt to climate change, the rise of an increasingly influential China that will challenge the Western-centric world order, especially its institutions; the rise of artificial intelligence and other technologies that will have a huge impact on the way we work; further population growth, which could pose a challenge for global food supply and prompt us to innovate if the natural world with its plant and animal species does not want to go completely extinct. There are many challenges, and they are interconnected, which is why we must plan for the future.

What would actually be the description of your job, or the job of a futurist?

– We help people envision possible futures using the futures studies method to make better decisions and create more resilient systems.

What challenges and prejudices do you encounter in your daily work?

– People think we predict the future, but we leave that to astrologers and economists.

How do you respond to that?

– We try to explain to them that we accept the assumption that the future is unpredictable, but we must work with it to plan. Instead of writing like economists, in fine print, that forecasts are conditioned on assumptions being true, which rarely happens, we accept the fundamental assumption that the future is unpredictable and that predictions are rarely good at forecasting anything in future systems defined by acceleration, complexity, and disruptions.

You can read the entire interview in the new issue of the printed and digital edition of Lider.