Hamas’s terrorist incursion into Jewish settlements and IDF military bases in southern Israel, the massacre of civilians and soldiers, and the taking of hostages likely mark only the beginning of a much larger war. Therefore, it is important to draw lessons from Israeli failures that allowed Hamas’s surprise attack to succeed, as well as to see the bigger picture and background of the war in which Hamas served merely as an Iranian proxy for carrying out a terrorist operation. This is important for Israel, whose security and state survival have been directly attacked. But it is equally important for Europe, whose security directly depends on relations in the Middle East, and which can find itself at any moment, on European soil, facing similar scenarios from its ‘little Gazas’ in suburbs that elude government oversight and live their parallel societies and orders.
What slipped through the system
In analyses of the causes that allowed a comprehensive Hamas attack to occur, which completely blocked Israeli defense for several hours, key failures were identified in underestimating Hamas’s strength and organization, a sense of superiority that the Israeli military-security sector derives from its dominance in high technology, and an excessive reliance on it, which resulted in the failure to recognize Hamas’s true intentions. The director of Israel’s MEMRI (Middle East Media Research Institute) and former security advisor to Israeli prime ministers Yigal Camron, literally wrote two months ago in his analysis a scenario of an imminent attack on Israel from Gaza organized by Iran, as a prelude to a major war.
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In the event that Iran achieves its intentions in the Middle East, it would mean a defensive-security capitulation for Europe before the eastern regimes – Iran, Russia, and China. Therefore, Europe must understand that (this) is deeply its war
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But this slipped through the system. Israeli services had Hamas’s recordings of how they were rehearsing the operation. But even that was not recognized as a real threat in the high-tech system. Consequently, the defense system, which was ‘tuned’ only to neutralize rocket fire from Gaza or individual terrorist attacks, was not prepared for the possibility of a comprehensive Hamas invasion from Gaza (land, water, air, motors, paragliders, boats), planned to go under the radar. And when the operation began – the Israeli defense system collapsed for several hours.
I have no doubt that the Israeli defense-security system will learn from its failures and quickly reorganize. But I wonder if European governments even recognize that such a comprehensive terrorist scenario can happen in more or less any Western capital if a state sponsor of terror (say Iran) wishes to do so. Radicalized Islamist groups from Molenbeek are certainly not capable of organizing a comprehensive terrorist attack on European institutions in Brussels and taking Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel hostage. But if a state that sponsors terror ties them into its operation, that is not impossible. European security rests on the assumption that such a thing is not in the interest of the population of Molenbeek. But what if it is in someone else’s interest?
A war for Europe’s survival
Israeli security assessments were also based on the assumption that the residents of Gaza are not interested in a new escalation, let alone a new war, and that Hamas is losing strength. Since the so-called Abraham Accords on the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain came into effect, and under American auspices, there was also an agreement on normalization with Saudi Arabia, relations between Israel and Gaza have significantly relaxed: many Palestinians from Gaza received work permits and started working in Israel, investments in Gaza increased, and life began to improve… But this is not in Iran’s interest, which positions itself as the religious and geopolitical guardian of the Middle East, and the destruction of Israel and Western (American) influence is its declared goal.
The Hamas operation was primarily launched to stop the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, to push out American (Western) influence from the Middle East, with the cheering of Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China. Therefore, this is just the beginning of a war for the Middle East that far exceeds the local conflict between Israel and Hamas. That is why the US is sending aircraft carriers and negotiating the use of airports in Jordan, and why Iran is calling on all Muslims to fight against Israel and the West. Europe will certainly be security threatened if it continues to behave as a refugee-migrant haven. And if Iran achieves its intentions in the Middle East, it would mean a defensive-security capitulation for Europe before the eastern regimes – Iran, Russia, and China. In that case, Ursula von der Leyen would not even need to be taken hostage. Therefore, Europe must first understand that (this) is deeply its war – a war for survival.
