Dan Bucșa: We Expect the ECB to Reduce Rates from 4.50% to 3.75%

Looking at the list of participants at the 15th Day of Big Plans, we can say that this largest Lider conference will attract significant attention from the business community this year, but not only from them, we can freely say, but also more broadly. Things are slowly heating up, excitement at Lider is growing, we are in full swing with preparations as we await September 27 when the conference will be held at the Westin hotel in Zagreb.

Of course, planning something, especially having big plans, is quite thankless at this time, although it seems that the global economic situation is stabilizing, that inflation is easing. However, the business world still feels the ‘tails’ of the recent peak of the crisis in its operations, and the war in Ukraine continues.

At this year’s Day of Big Plans, we expect leaders from various industries in Croatia, representatives of the public sector and state institutions, from whom we will learn firsthand what awaits the entrepreneurial scene and the Croatian economy as a whole in 2024, how all economic stakeholders are facing existing challenges and preparing for upcoming ones, and what their forecasts and predictions for the next year are. And for the realization of plans, whether they are big or small, support from the financial sector is always needed, and representatives of this sector will not be lacking. We have already announced the arrival of the governor of the Croatian National Bank, Boris Vujčić, and this year’s Day of Big Plans will also feature the chief macroeconomist of UniCredit for Central and Eastern Europe – Dan Bucșa, whose forecasts will provide extremely important insights into future market movements.

In response to our question about what interest rate policy in Croatia and the EU he expects next year, Bucșa says that his colleagues expect the ECB to reduce rates from 4.50% to 3.75%. The reason for this is that ‘inflation continues to fall, and the labor market is further cooling amid weaker economic activity at the turn of the year’.

Speaking about the key challenges for the banking sector and industries in the upcoming period and what he expects to happen in the area of inflation control, Bucșa warns of a likely increase in non-performing loans amid high interest rates.

– Also, a cyclical withdrawal from real estate financing, a focus on co-financing programs funded by the EU, and projects for relocating supply chain projects to closer or friendlier countries (near-shoring/friend-shoring projects) – says Bucșa.

Even these short but significant announcements show that Bucșa’s participation in the 15th Day of Big Plans, which will be held on September 27 in the crystal hall of the Westin Zagreb hotel, will generate interest from the business, political, and generally social community. Therefore, do not miss the opportunity to network with the most successful entrepreneurs, register in time for participation. More information can be found at the link.