Analysts from the Economic Institute, Zagreb (EIZ) estimate that based on the movement of the CEIZ index for June, the Croatian economy will grow by 2.9 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to the same quarter last year.
– In June 2023, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease of 0.57 index points compared to the same month in 2022. At the same time, the index value compared to the previous month was lower by 0.01 index point – EIZ announced on its website on Monday.
When observed by index components, two components recorded a higher seasonally adjusted value in June compared to May of this year – the industrial production volume index and the state budget revenue from value-added tax (VAT). Retail trade turnover and the number of tourist arrivals recorded a decrease in monthly seasonally adjusted value, according to the EIZ announcement.
All four index components recorded an increase in value compared to the same month of the previous year, the Institute’s analysts emphasize.
– The described movement of the index suggests that economic activity in the Croatian economy is slightly accelerating in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. Based on the movement of the index value, we can estimate that in the second quarter of 2023, the Croatian economy will grow by 2.9 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year – states the EIZ announcement, noting that the monthly estimate of GDP growth based on the value of the CEIZ index is indicative and should primarily be used as information about the current state and direction of the business cycle in the Republic of Croatia.
The CEIZ index is a coincident economic indicator, or a monthly composite indicator of the business cycle developed at the EIZ, and its purpose is to provide timely information about the current state of the business cycle, which is why the value of the CEIZ index changes simultaneously with changes in the business cycle.
This index is a single-number indicator of the business cycle that contains information that would otherwise need to be collected by analyzing a large number of different economic series, and unlike the time series of quarterly GDP, the CEIZ index provides a monthly assessment of the state of the economy, thereby providing more precise information about changes occurring over shorter periods.
Otherwise, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics is expected to publish the first estimate of GDP for the second quarter of this year on August 29.
