Home / Business and Politics / Jurišić: A new period of increased volatility on commodity exchanges begins, dependent on events in Russia

Jurišić: A new period of increased volatility on commodity exchanges begins, dependent on events in Russia

– I certainly expect a reaction on the exchanges following these events in Russia, most commodities will start next week in ‘green’. Generally, such events that can lead to civil war provoke a market reaction because they create great uncertainty and risk that the market cannot rationally and objectively assess and/or evaluate – emphasized Robert Jurišić, director of S-Grain BI for trade mediation and a commentator for Lider, referring to the current unrest in Russia.

Let us recall, this weekend the largest domestic crisis that Putin has faced since the beginning of the war in Ukraine erupted in Russia. Namely, after the leader of the rebellious mercenaries, Evgeny Prigozhin, said on Saturday that he had taken control of the southern city of Rostov as part of an attempt to overthrow the military leadership, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that he would crush what he called an ‘armed rebellion’.

As the situation in Russia becomes increasingly serious by the hour, the question arises as to how much this entire event will shake the markets and prices again.

Jurišić explained that, although there are currently no reports indicating that activities related to the harvest that has just begun in Russia or related to export activities in the ports are endangered, due to Russia’s significance in the world of wheat, he expects a limit-up on CBOT on Monday. A similar situation could occur on MATIF, he adds.

– This will certainly affect other commodities in the agri sector, primarily grains and oilseeds, so they will also see an increase. The price of energy, primarily oil, will certainly react to the events in Russia – adds Jurišić.

He also pointed out that if today were a working day, the reaction on the commodity exchanges would be immediate (similar to a year and a half ago when Russia attacked Ukraine).

– As it stands, it is possible that by Monday the market has more time to process what is happening in Russia or that this coup fails today/tomorrow, thus reducing uncertainty and, consequently, the reaction of market players. One thing is certain, starting next week, a new period of increased volatility on commodity exchanges begins which will last until we see more clearly what will happen in Russia – concluded Jurišić.

Tagged: