If the parliamentary elections on July 5, 2020, had been held according to the new architecture of electoral units, it would have brought HDZ (with HSLS and HDS) one additional mandate (64 instead of 63 parliamentary seats). However, the biggest winner would be – SDP (or its Restart coalition) – with two additional mandates (43 parliamentary seats). On the other hand, the Homeland Movement with partners would be ‘short’ by two mandates, remaining at 14 instead of 16 representatives, and Radimir Čačić would not win his seat in the Parliament, which would leave his Reformists outside the parliament.
This is the result of Lider’s simulation of the 2020 election results with the current, redrawn electoral units. HDZ’s proposal is a consequence of the Constitutional Court’s decision of February 7, which annulled the electoral law with a request to adopt a new one by October 1 that will ensure equal weight for each vote, with deviations of less than five percent, and which will follow administrative boundaries as much as possible.
Frankenstein’s younger brother
HDZ’s variant of electoral units – which is based on the proposal of geographer Nenad Pokos – received, of course, the Government’s blessing and was sent for public consultation. As announced, the ruling party opted for the least possible changes. This is logical, as there is no need to change a winning combination. The ruling party did not allow the opposition to participate in the first phase, and even kept independent experts at bay. Therefore, they received a plethora of criticism. Arsen Bauk called this redrawing of Croatia Frankenstein-like, although the previous one was also unnatural, so the Croatian electoral Frankenstein we have already gotten used to has just received a younger brother. Dalija Orešković called it plenkymandering, referring to gerrymandering, a term created by combining the surname of Elbridge Gerry and the amphibian salamander. This term was first used to describe the irregular shape of electoral units in Massachusetts, established by Governor Gerry in 1812.
However, the Croatian Gerry would be much better suited to a system with 21 electoral units, which coincide with the borders of counties. After the last elections, we simulated the results according to that logic – determining the colors of representatives in each unit/county according to the number of voters. According to that model, HDZ would receive as many as six additional mandates – a total of 69. However, the problem is that this would not fulfill the Constitutional Court’s requirement for equal value for each vote.
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HDZ against the Constitutional Court
It should also be mentioned that there is a third serious proposal for redrawing electoral Croatia. Gong presented a model with six electoral units. Here, HDZ would also be among the losers (with a deficit of one mandate). Both HNS and the Reformists would lose one mandate, which would cause them to fall out of the Parliament, and the group around the Party with a Name and Surname (SSIP) would be left without two mandates (those from Pametno and Fokusa), retaining only one parliamentary seat. On the other hand, the winners of Gong’s model would be SDP (three additional mandates) and Možemo! and Most (one mandate each).
Unlike Gong, who simply merged counties, HDZ did not respect the Constitutional Court’s provision on maintaining administrative boundaries, and the most distorted is Slavonia, whose two electoral units have been extended westward, to Legada, or Hrvatska Dubica.
The lesson of gerrymandering
Although colleague Tomislav Blagaić created simulations of the 2020 election results, it should be noted that the situation in the Parliament has changed significantly over the past three years. The Restart coalition no longer exists. Davor Bernardić has left the leadership position in SDP, which has split and weakened. Peđa Grbin has only 12 members left in his parliamentary club, while the splintered Social Democrats have 17 mandates but are unrecognizable in public. The Homeland Movement has also lost its leader, Miroslav Škoro, and has been halved to six mandates.
The weakening of the Homeland Movement, perhaps paradoxically, suits HDZ, which counts on its mandates, and prefers ‘tokens’ over strong partners. In this context, the most uncertain electoral battle will be fought in the Homeland Movement’s home region, Slavonia. However, according to current estimates, the existing opposition will find it difficult to challenge HDZ’s victory, and it is even more uncertain to profile a sufficiently strong new political force.
However, in the end, it is worth recalling the lesson of gerrymandering. After he redrew the electoral units in Massachusetts, then-Governor Gerry lost the election to his opponent Caleb Strong.
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