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Improvement in Supply Chains Supports Further Easing of Inflation

The global supply chain stress index fell in April to its lowest level since August 2009. This is supported by a further decline in shipping rates and air freight tariffs, while the price of memory chips is decreasing, and delivery times have been consistently shortening since April last year, reports HUP.

Following a sharp decline in prices of industrial metals, copper and aluminum, the withdrawal of China’s zero COVID policies and the opening of its economy at the beginning of this year are encouraging a slight increase in the prices of these strategic metals. Demand for wood raw materials used in construction, furniture production, paper, and packaging has also stabilized. The demand for euro pallets, which are indispensable in many transport sectors, is also strengthening due to increased needs for goods storage. Although the prices of wood raw materials have stabilized at a two-year low, they are still 1.5 to 2 times higher compared to pre-pandemic levels.

China’s return to the global economic stage will undoubtedly have a positive impact on world trade, given the decline in import prices of inputs for European companies and the removal of trade barriers, ultimately leading to a decrease in the overall level of inflation. Despite this, China’s reopening still has the potential to lead to an increase in raw material prices, after the country’s demand was reduced during the period of pandemic restrictions.

Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) has increased as Europe moved away from Russian gas as a key energy source last year, and EU member states will now have to compete with China for the limited supply of LNG in the global market. At the same time, oil prices could rise in the coming months as OPEC has unexpectedly cut production from May 2023 until the end of the year, while Chinese demand is increasing.

The final outcome of these events will ultimately depend on the strength of economic growth, as tightening monetary policy could weaken global demand and reduce the demand for raw materials and key intermediate goods, concludes HUP.

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