After the super electoral festivities and bacchanalia, a heavy hangover will follow

Carpe diem! Recently, a unionist from the public sector humorously explained to his private company, which included the author of these lines, the reasons why his colleagues are seeking higher salaries right now. Some have already secured raises in the public sector, so they will try as well. Why not? After all, he significantly presents the key thesis: elections are coming. – Who would be crazy to miss the opportunity?! – he concludes. And there is actually nothing new here. Just as governments pull their most unpopular moves in the first year of their mandate (okay, maybe not Croatian governments), the public sector demands raises, often threatening strikes right before elections.

Next year, the entire public sector is aware, and the private sector perhaps a bit less, that we are facing as many as three electoral cycles. It is most likely that we will first elect Croatian representatives to the European Parliament as early as June 2024, followed by our parliamentary elections and the presidential elections. And if the cards fall into place, there are chances that elections for the HDZ Presidency will also be held next year, but that is still a long shot. Since 2024 will be a super electoral year, it only means one thing – the festivities have begun. Everything is on the menu: an endless series of exhausting negotiations resulting in salary increases, political benders where chairs and positions are secretly allocated, and as it is rumored in entrepreneurial circles, they are allegedly being offered advisory positions, even ministries, with the only condition being a ‘pink slip’ to finance such campaigns. We would not be overly mistaken if we called all this political orgies or, more vividly, pre-election bacchanalia, since we have already started with Latin sayings.

Honor House

It seems there is money and chairs for everyone. The budget is filling up well, the tourist season is already promising, allegedly it will be the best in history, and that means that after the summer, debauchery and excess will reign behind the scenes in the desire for everyone who can to benefit at least a little from political power or money from the budget. And if the background is such, calmness and status quo will prevail in front of the cameras. And endless repetition of how successful this government is. Any concrete political moves will be absent, there will be no reforms, the business climate will not transform, rent-seeking will not be abolished, the holy grails that hinder Croatia from becoming a developed country with a strong economy will not be touched, and there will be no changes that would allow Croatia to move from the bottom of the EU rankings regarding average salaries.

It is a pity, because 2023 would be an ideal year for serious reforms, believes the president of the Entrepreneurs’ Voice Association, Hrvoje Bujas. The pandemic has passed, supply chains have stabilized, inflationary pressures will likely ease, and have already done so, he emphasizes, and now would be the right time for reforms in the judiciary, public administration, and tax system.

– Initiating reforms now would lead to a better business climate, we would be more interesting to foreign investors, and domestic entrepreneurs would dare to invest more. The economy would grow more, we should not be satisfied with the modest percentages we have now, but if there was no courage for that in the first year of the mandate, I do not expect such moves now, ahead of so many elections. I fear that next year will be yet another in a series of lost years in which only distribution will occur, and nothing will be created – Bujas is specific, who cannot shake the impression that we might be doing well now, but wonders what if a new crisis awaits us just around the corner or after the elections. Who will then pay all those bills that are now open because of the ‘Honor House’?

– These are not just bills filled from the budget; there is also money from EU funds that should be spent on the private sector, which could help us grow, invest, but those funds are being channeled into public infrastructure projects, all for the sake of polishing the image of the ruling party before the elections – Bujas points out and raises the question of whether all this might be too high a price for a party that already holds the view that ‘it cannot lose the next elections’.

Indeed, the government has a fairly comfortable position ahead of the next super electoral year. Another excellent tourist season is expected this summer, unemployment has never been lower, budget revenues are stable, and inflation is only doing them a favor, while foreign workers are filling the pension system. On this wave of positive news, the HDZ campaign will likely be built, seeking another mandate. The only serious problem is the issue of salaries, as our average salaries are the lowest in the EU, and the euro and inflation have only opened Pandora’s box.

Promise now, pay later

– I believe that before the season we will conduct a round of negotiations with the public sector or even get a new law on public servants that would regulate their salaries. The real sector will also benefit from a good season, although pressures for further salary increases due to labor shortages will continue – says PR expert and political analyst Krešimir Macan, adding what we all know, that an election year is not a year for reforms and decisive moves and that we should not expect unpopular moves.

And if there are no reforms and decisive moves in an election year, there are promises, but everything the government promises before the elections could come due much later, believes professor at the Faculty of Political Science and economic analyst Luka Brkić.

– Some of those promises could be unrealistic, some could even be destructive, but no one is thinking about the consequences now. One example is the fact that the recently announced tax reform is presented as a reform, but it is actually just a redistribution of funds from the pension system. Such a decision will come due sooner or later, another government will have to deal with it seriously and clean up that mess – Brkić emphasizes.

What entrepreneurs expect from the super electoral year and what they hope for can be read in the printed or digital edition of the weekly Lider.