Data for international commodity exchange for March shows more optimistic trends at the end of the first quarter of this year, according to HUP’s chief economist Hrvoje Stojić.
As stated in HUP’s Weekly Focus, alongside the obvious impact of high inflation, the acceleration of commodity export growth of 20.9 percent year-on-year reflects a strong recovery in the delivery of petroleum derivatives, continuously strong production of export-oriented capital goods (equipment and facilities, motor vehicles) and pharmaceutical preparations.
The rapid growth of stocks of export-oriented production combined with the recovery of the business climate among major trading partners, namely Germany and Italy, indicates stabilization in supply chains and a certain optimism regarding foreign demand. Stojić also claims that further integration into global value chains upon entering the euro area contributes to the counter-cyclical movement of exports.
– On the other hand, the decline in commodity imports of 3.1 percent year-on-year is a result of a high base, falling energy prices, but also a slowdown in import demand viewed through the real stagnation of retail trade. Nevertheless, thanks to approximately double the stronger growth of commodity exports in the first quarter (+13.2 percent) compared to imports (+7.4 percent), net exchange with foreign countries in the first quarter of this year has a more positive impact on GDP growth than previously expected – writes Stojić.
