CEIZ index indicates GDP growth of 3.8 percent in the first quarter

The movement of CEIZ index suggests that the Croatian economy in the first quarter will grow by 3.8 percent compared to the same period last year, according to estimates from the Economic Institute, Zagreb (EIZ), which notes that a more precise assessment of the business cycle should wait for the release of the index value for March.

In February, the CEIZ index decreased by 1.29 index points compared to the same month in 2022, while it recorded a very slight decline of 0.11 index points compared to the previous month, according to a statement on the EIZ website.

When observing individual components of the index, EIZ states that two components achieved a higher seasonally adjusted value in February this year compared to the previous month – the number of tourist arrivals and retail trade turnover.

On the other hand, revenues from the state budget from value-added tax recorded a decrease in seasonally adjusted value compared to the previous month, while the industrial production volume index component stagnated.

– Based on the movement of the index value, we can estimate that in the first quarter of 2023, the Croatian economy will grow by 3.8 percent compared to the same period last year, which means that the annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter continues the slowdown recorded since the second quarter of 2022 – it was emphasized.

For a more precise assessment of the business cycle in the first quarter of 2023, it is necessary to wait for the release of the index value for March 2023, EIZ noted.

They also added that the monthly estimate of GDP growth based on the CEIZ index value is indicative and should primarily be used as information about the current state and direction of the business cycle in Croatia.

The CEIZ index is a coincident economic indicator, or a monthly composite indicator of the business cycle developed at EIZ, and its purpose is to provide timely information about the current state of the business cycle, which is why the value of the CEIZ index changes simultaneously with changes in the business cycle.

This index is a single-number indicator of the business cycle that contains information that would otherwise need to be collected by analyzing a large number of different economic series, and unlike the time series of quarterly GDP, the CEIZ index provides a monthly assessment of the state of the economy, thereby providing more precise information about changes occurring over shorter periods.