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Salaries Rise Faster Than Expected, HUP Expects Growth Above Inflation

Employers in the real sector have significantly raised salaries throughout the past year in the battle to retain every worker, especially those with the most competitive skills in the domestic market. The salary growth has continued into this year.

In February, the growth of salaries accelerated, with the nominal gross salary for February (EUR 1,522) paid in March being 13.4 percent higher year-on-year (13.1 percent in January). The real salary growth also accelerated to 1.3 percent year-on-year from 0.4 percent in January.

The growth of the average net salary (EUR 1,106) is slightly higher (+11.8 percent) compared to January, while the real decline in net salaries slowed to -0.2 percent year-on-year (-0.9 percent in January). Earlier than expected real improvements are a reflection of the strong growth of the minimum wage (+12.2 percent), a series of indexations at the beginning of the year, and the slowing of inflation alongside ongoing labor market tensions that exert pressure on salary growth in the real sector.

Given the continuous solid employment growth of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of this year, there are evident positive risks in the labor market regarding consumption growth and ultimately GDP, emphasizes the Croatian Employers’ Association in its weekly analysis.

Namely, early data from the labor market this year signal that the demand for workers will remain high, and the pressure on salary growth combined with the weakening of inflation will enhance the recovery of real salaries, i.e., purchasing power. This year, HUP expects an employment growth of around 2 percent with a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent from 7.0 percent last year.

This year, they also expect salary growth, i.e., total earnings of employees of 8 to 10 percent, significantly above the expected average inflation rate for this year (6.5 percent). However, the strong dynamics of salary growth strengthen the expectations of central banks that this year the unit labor cost will have a predominant impact on inflation, HUP states.

This has expanded the public expert discussion on the drivers of inflation concerning the thesis that profit margins had a key impact on the acceleration of inflation. HUP is working on a comprehensive analysis of Croatian private non-financial companies in 2022 based on life accounting microdata.

So far, it is known that companies listed on the Zagreb Stock Exchange last year experienced a slight decline in operational (EBITDA) margin and a smaller increase in net margin. The food industry recorded a stronger decline in EBITDA margin compared to the average.

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