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Another Possible Interest Rate Hike
On the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB is implementing a credit crisis for the first time. Between March and June 2023, the ECB will reduce the budget of its asset purchase program by 15 billion euros per month. One of the main lessons from the American experience is that QT (quantitative tightening), and especially the significant decline in central bank reserves associated with it, can lead to significant episodes of financial instability. When the FED attempted to implement QT, a serious episode of stress in September 2019 forced it to halt its first QT experiment. We can also recall 2009 when the HNB withdrew a large amount of kuna from circulation, which was how long it took us to pull the economy out of the crisis.
JP Morgan Predicts Brent Will Fall Below $60/bbl in the Near Future
Brent crude oil futures prices are currently above $75/bbl. Assurances from U.S. regulators have eased investor fears of a broader financial crisis. U.S. authorities are considering expanding emergency lending options for the banking sector, although investors remain cautious due to further market instability. Expectations that the FED will soon end its monetary tightening campaign and optimism regarding the recovery of demand in China are bullish for the market. Chinese imports of crude oil from Russia are up 24 percent compared to the previous year in the first two months of this year.
However, the international benchmark for oil remains near its lowest levels since December 2021 as rising fears of recession in the U.S. and resilient Russian supply press the market. JP Morgan predicts that Brent will fall below $60/bbl in the near future.
TTF gas futures, the European gas benchmark, traded around €43/MWh, not far from the lowest level since August 2021. Weather forecasts indicate another short cold wave this week, and some maintenance work is expected in Norway, the largest European supplier. However, with the end of the heating season, storage has begun to fill up, led by Italy and Germany. At the same time, LNG imports remain strong, despite Freeport LNG canceling at least one cargo in March due to a technical failure.
At the end of the week, a recovery in grain and oilseed prices was recorded on MATIF and CBOT. The main reason for this on Friday was market doubts arising from Russian comments about better price control through actions to replenish intervention stocks. In this context of uncertainty, it was enough to support the wheat and corn markets. Prices on MATIF sharply recovered, making up for some of the downward movement in recent days, but we start the new week in the red around the level of €255/t for wheat and corn.
From a geopolitical perspective, strengthening ties between China and Russia is leading to a significant increase in Chinese imports from Russia via land routes. At the same time, the pressure of goods from Ukraine on the markets continues. According to the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, wheat production for the 2023 harvest is estimated at 16.6 million tons (vs 20.5 million tons last year), and corn production at 21.7 million tons (vs 25.6 million tons last year).
On the other hand, a slight increase in oilseed production is expected. Thus, the estimate for rapeseed production is 3.8 million tons (vs 3.7 million tons last year), and sunflower at 11.5 million tons (vs 11.1 million tons last year). Total grain and oilseed production is estimated at 63 million tons, which is seven million tons less than last year, or 23 million tons less than in 2021.
European crops remain in good condition, but there are concerns about low precipitation levels in Southern Europe, reported the EU Crop Monitoring Service in its report on agricultural resource monitoring (MARS). Total wheat yields in the EU are expected to be three percent above the five-year average, barley two percent, and rapeseed six percent. Regarding the new crop, COCERAL released its new estimates for the next campaign on Friday, which will integrate the EU and the United Kingdom.
The volume of soft wheat production has been revised upwards compared to estimates from last December. COCERAL expects a yield of 144.5 million tons of soft wheat. The expected amount of corn is 62.3 million tons, and barley 59.6 million tons, both less than estimated in December. For oilseeds, the amount of rapeseed is now estimated at 21.1 million tons. Rapeseed imports into the EU now amount to 5.87 million tons compared to 3.81 million tons last year. This, along with the drop in biodiesel prices, is the main reason for the sharp decline in rapeseed prices.
Wheat exports from the EU to date amount to 22.13 million tons, an increase of eight percent compared to 20.52 million tons recorded at the same time last year. On the other hand, barley exports fell to 4.33 million tons from 6.18 million tons last year. Corn imports have surged to 19.73 million tons compared to 11.90 million tons last year. Spain is the main importer with 6.76 million tons.
Potential restrictions on Russian exports were a major factor in the U.S. grain market as well. The recent drop in corn prices triggered continued activity throughout the week, and sales to China in the last 10 days reached a total of 2.75 million tons. In the first two months of this year, China imported a total of 16.2 million tons of soybeans (+16 percent) and 5.3 million tons of corn (+13.8 percent).
USDA estimates that soybean imports will rise to 97 million tons in 2023. The corn price at the beginning of the week is in the red, but still above the level of $6.4/bu, for the first time in a month, thus nullifying the drop in the last two weeks. It should be noted that last week, funds were net short on corn for the first time since 2020.
The bearish trend continues for soybeans, and the downward price movement recorded since the beginning of the week has led to a new short-term low. The main factor in the market is the pressure from the Brazilian harvest and estimates of U.S. planting. We are currently at a level of $14.3/bu, which brings us back to price levels from the end of October. Wheat prices are again losing ground, despite the uncertain context of the 2023 harvest with excessive rains in India or a relatively small wheat crop in Ukraine. The week starts in the red, at around $6.8/bu.
Goldman Sachs Expects Global Shortage of Visible Copper Stocks by September
Copper futures prices are at $4.05/lbs. Challenges in the banking sector continue to impact prices of key base metals. As with other commodities, concerns that the FED will defy market expectations and refrain from cutting interest rates this year have also put pressure on industrial demand projections.
However, fears of low supply have kept copper prices nearly seven percent higher since the beginning of the year. Mining exports from major producer Peru plummeted nearly 20 percent year-on-year in January due to widespread protests, while stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 36 percent from their peak in February.
Global stock reductions have prompted key commodity trader Trafigura to forecast that copper prices will reach record levels this year, while the supply-demand imbalance has led Goldman Sachs to expect a global shortage of visible copper stocks by September.
Rebar futures prices fell to 4,100 CNY/t at the end of March due to cheaper input materials as investors continued to monitor risks to the global financial system and prospects for Chinese demand. Chinese authorities issued another warning against speculation on iron ore prices, stating they would crack down on false information and hoarding by trading companies. A large domestic supply of coking coal has also reduced operational costs as production resumed after last month’s accident.
However, lower steel production and optimism regarding high demand have limited losses on the exchanges. Reports indicate that China is considering reducing crude steel production by 2.5 percent this year. Meanwhile, industrial production growth was slightly below estimates for January and February, but investors were optimistic about strong investment growth. New liquidity injections and a reduction in reserve ratios by the PBoC have also supported expectations of increased activity in infrastructure and construction. Aluminum futures traded at around $2,300/t.
