Coface Country and Sector Risk Handbook for 2023: Key Trends in the Global Economy

Coface has released a new Country and Sector Risk Handbook for 2023 in a completely new format, but as always with our long-awaited risk assessments by country and sector. Our team of economic research experts offers you their analyses and forecasts for 160 countries and 13 sectors.

For Xavier Durand, CEO of Coface, 2023 will be crucial.

What will 2023 bring?

– Growth is likely to remain overall subdued (close to zero), in the US (below 1%), as well as in most developed countries.

Global growth will be driven exclusively by developing economies, particularly commodity-producing countries, which will benefit from reduced activism by Western central banks – led by the Federal Reserve – and the recovery of the Chinese economy.

After the expected peak of the epidemic, activity in China should significantly recover, driven by domestic demand that has been particularly slow over the past two years, especially at the household level, where it seems that excess savings will likely finance a very strong recovery in household consumption. Given the increasing dissatisfaction of the population, the government also seems to want to support activities, as suggested, for example, by the recent easing of control measures or restrictions for some sectors (ICT, real estate, etc.).

Needless to say, this rather optimistic outlook is not without risks. The transformation of the world is accelerating, and the multidimensional crisis we are experiencing is far from over. Most of last year’s themes will remain at the forefront of the agenda, primarily the energy crisis and inflation. The latter are clearly not just cyclical and related to sanctions against Russia and the impact of the pandemic, but are also, above all, a legacy of chronic underinvestment in the energy system and, undoubtedly, the price being paid for its decarbonization. Although the recent decline in inflation is undoubtedly welcome, it could therefore be only temporary, and the price increases observed since the reopening of economies could be a precursor to a new, structurally higher inflation regime.

This is even truer as isolationary forces, primarily inflationary, resurface and increase the risk of fragmentation, which is clearly not in the interest of either the collective or any specific country. How will monetary and fiscal authorities react, even if we view the problem only from this angle? Will the fight against inflation, which is at the heart of the mandate, come into open conflict with government objectives?

As you can see, the year ahead is fraught with risks on all fronts – macroeconomic, financial, social, political, etc. – and could lead to the global economy, depending on the decisions made, falling into recession or finally climbing onto the (right) path for sustainable, inclusive, and virtuous development – believes Durand.

The twenty-seventh edition of this handbook addresses all these issues and attempts to answer them by adopting, as is customary, a dual geographical and sectoral approach. Download it for FREE: https://biz.coface.com/HANDBOOK_2023

For further information, we invite you to check our comprehensive risk assessment files for 160 countries and 13 sectors in our economic analysis section on our website.