China and Russia lead the great return of nuclear energy

For the past decade, nuclear energy has been in a sort of dormancy. The advantage in energy production has been given to ‘green sources’ such as solar and wind, but global events in the last two years show that many countries have too hastily abandoned what is realistically the cleanest green energy, which is now making a comeback in a big way.

Back in 1973, then US President Nixon tackled nuclear energy by launching a new program called ‘Project Independence‘. Nixon’s goal was to build 1,000 nuclear plants by 2000, and it was projected that these nuclear power plants would meet 200% of US electricity needs by 2022. If this had been achieved, there would have been no need for energy from wind, sun, natural gas, or water, and there would have been no carbon emissions produced by using these energy sources.

Nuclear power plants use small amounts of uranium as fuel, and since uranium is extremely energy-rich, the impacts of mining are minimal compared to coal, oil… even wind energy. Additionally, nuclear production does not produce pollution from its operations. It does not matter whether it is windy, sunny, or rainy; a nuclear plant operates. Best of all, nuclear energy provides huge amounts of base energy – about 1 GW per reactor, meaning that a facility with two reactors can supply energy to more than one million homes. However, of the 1,000 nuclear reactors ordered, not a single one has been built, and in the USA, nuclear energy provides only 20% of electricity.

From the seventies to today, nuclear energy has experienced a decline, and it was hammered by the Fukushima disaster in 2011. This event brought the remaining support for nuclear energy to its lowest point ever.

Time for change

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 gave nuclear energy an additional boost. Illuminated by Russian natural gas, the European energy grid faced a crisis that was only partially alleviated by unusually warm weather. When European countries realized that Russian gas was slipping away, they returned their focus to nuclear energy. Special attention was directed towards Germany, which decided to shut down all its nuclear power plants while simultaneously investing in wind and solar energy, which analysts deemed extremely reckless.

And while in Europe everyone has ‘gone crazy’ for the net zero agenda, turning to the sun and wind like some hippies, all in the name of supposedly saving the planet, China and Russia have been increasing their number of nuclear reactors. In 2021, there were 439 nuclear reactors operating worldwide, of which China currently has 38 nuclear energy reactors in operation and 19 under construction, while Russia also counts 38 nuclear reactors in operation and 15 under construction. Additionally, as many as 42 nuclear reactors worldwide have been built using Russian nuclear technology.

The fuel question

Nuclear reactors are powered by enriched uranium. According to one report, Russia mines approximately six percent of the world’s raw uranium annually. This is a quantity that can be compensated if other countries that mine uranium increase their uranium exploitation. However, uranium does not go directly from the mine to the nuclear reactor. It must undergo conversion and enrichment before it can be used as fuel in a nuclear reactor. And here, Russia is a dominant player, possessing 40% of the world’s total uranium conversion infrastructure and 46% of the world’s total uranium enrichment capacity.

In a report co-authored by Paul Dabbar, former Under Secretary for Science at the Department of Energy, and Matthew Bowen, a researcher at Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy, they write that this is precisely where allied countries and the USA should increase their efforts, i.e., focus their attention. Besides Russia, these conversion and enrichment opportunities exist in Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

These capacities are sufficient to replace at least part of the conversion and enrichment needed for Western nuclear reactors, but it is unclear whether the capacity will be able to fully replace Russian capacity, the duo notes in their report.

– More investment in mining, conversion, and enrichment facilities may be needed to completely free Western nuclear fuel chains from Russian entanglement. However, adding enough new conversion and enrichment capacity will take years, write Dabbar and Bowen in their report.

However, to convince private companies to invest their money and resources in the necessary infrastructure, the government needs to commit not to return to Russian supplies, argue Bowen and Dabbar. They say that private investors’ concern that Russian uranium imports could return to the old ways in a few years would undermine private investments and lead to likely losses of those investments. Currently, in the USA, there is only one uranium conversion facility, in Metropolis, Illinois, but it is still on standby.

Export of nuclear reactors

Although the nuclear export market has primarily been dominated by Russia over the past decade, China is beginning to make strong advances. As much as 67% of all reactors that will be completed worldwide by 2030 will be either from Russia or China. The Russian state-owned Rosatom has $133 billion in reactor export orders – more than fifty reactors in nineteen countries, and China plans to export thirty of its Hualong One reactors by 2030, earning $390 billion.

The Nuclear Energy Alliance in Europe

The Russian invasion seems to have awakened the leaders of eleven European countries who signed a declaration in Stockholm at the end of February aimed at ‘jointly reaffirming the desire to strengthen European cooperation in the field of nuclear energy’. The signatories committed to closer cooperation across the entire nuclear supply chain and promoting ‘joint industrial projects’ in new production capacities, as well as new technologies such as small reactors.

– Nuclear energy is one of many tools to achieve our climate goals, to produce base electricity and ensure supply security – states the declaration signed on the margins of the EU energy ministers’ meeting organized by Sweden, the current holder of the six-month rotating presidency of the EU.

The eleven signatories are Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

Joint industrial projects

The goals of cooperation are to promote research and innovation as well as to assist in establishing ‘unique safety rules in accordance with the best international practices. It is crucial to ‘strengthen industrial cooperation in developing European nuclear capacities’ and explore ‘joint industrial projects’ for new reactors – states the joint declaration.

Commissioner Simson, who participated in the meeting along with the eleven energy ministers, urged participating countries to diversify away from Russian nuclear fuel and actively participate in partnerships on small modular reactors (SMR).

It seems that Europe has finally come to its senses and that countries are starting to pay attention to nuclear energy, without which the EU’s wet dream of net zero by 2050 will not be possible.