Two weeks ago, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković announced that demographics would become one of the three priorities of the Croatian government. Where the Prime Minister points, the team from the Central Office for Demography and Youth jumps. An extremely innovative measure was immediately announced: tenants will be able to receive subsidy.
Apparently, this innovation was conceived in the same bureaucratic laboratory as that ‘success’ when the authorities believed that a bait of two hundred thousand kuna would be enough to entice young people who fled to Ireland and other western countries to fill extraordinary charter flights returning to their homeland.
Just as two hundred thousand kuna did not encourage anyone to return, it is clear to everyone, except the team from the state administration, that another major failure is imminent. Thus, with the same supply of rental apartments, the introduction of subsidies will only raise the amount of requested rents. It will be interesting when lawyers get involved in the project, who will, of course, require that the apartments being rented are duly reported to the tax authorities as a condition for the subsidy.
Jumping and Landing
To be clear, demographics in a broader sense is something that should be a priority. It could be said that the issue of the number and structure of the population in Croatia is the greatest imbalance that exists. We have witnessed that in a year, some other imbalances have managed to balance out, at least temporarily. This primarily refers to some semblance of balance between GDP growth/decline and inflation.
Demographic imbalances are harder to resolve than recession or inflation. Money can be printed or withdrawn within a few years. However, it is difficult to ‘print’ people with the necessary qualifications in a short time. Therefore, we should demand from Plenković’s government that at least once every two terms, they do not approach some problem in a populist-amateurish manner.
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It is absurd to have a central office for demographics but not have a development strategy office. It existed but was abolished as a disruptive factor. So now there is no one in the state apparatus who is qualified to create usable development projections. Which would be the basis for the number and structure of workers that Croatia needs.
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Instead of a few clerks cobbling together a few measures, the problem requires a thoroughly studious approach. This would mean that some experts for the government create an unvarnished state of affairs and projections. And that a realistic, which means pessimistic, scenario is taken into account. Aging will continue, birth rates will not change much, and the skilled workforce (including the doctors currently in the media spotlight) will leave.
Finally, we need to see where it is realistic to draw a line of defense against emigration. And defend it with a combination of measures, not jumping and landing about caring for young families. And then, no matter how painful and politically unpopular it may be, see how large and what kind of contingent of foreign labor needs to be attracted to Croatia.
The market does its part: private employers are managing, and the number of work permits for foreigners has exceeded an annual level of one hundred thousand. But in conditions where more powerful Western industrial powers are fiercely competing for the same pools of labor worldwide, the business community needs synergy with the state. The German state of Bavaria is opening special centers in the countries of the Western Balkans because the assessment is that German diplomacy, no matter how focused, is failing to deliver a sufficient amount of human capital.
We Would Choose Immigrants
It is pleasing to read in some materials from Banski Dvori that demographic measures will take into account the needs of the economy. However, who is it that can predict the long-term needs of companies in Croatia? It is absurd to have a central office for demographics but not have a development strategy office (it existed but was abolished as a disruptive factor). So now there is no one in the state apparatus who is qualified to create usable development projections. Which would be the basis for the number and structure of workers that Croatia needs.
Translated, it is about the decision to either encourage industries with higher added value, which provide higher wages, or to accept that Croatia becomes the Florida of Europe, which needs cleaners, maids, and waiters. Of course, it is easiest to talk about a ‘supportive environment for youth’ and do nothing of quality. And let things go as they go – whatever will be, will be. But if we need university-educated personnel, should we, for example, finally provide health insurance for foreign students so that we can retain, say, three hundred out of a thousand in a country that is objectively attractive to live in? There are many opportunities and dangers. But nothing will be resolved with amateurish announcements about rent subsidies.
By the way, in the program adopted last year by the HDZ, there is an announcement that a program for selective immigration will be developed. But ‘special attention will be paid to… the willingness of immigrants to adapt to the domestic social and cultural framework.’ It is great if we are in a position to choose, in conditions where even the Germans cannot afford that.
