‘Hot Transfers’ of Chief Economists

In times of war, the popularity of military analysts rises. During the pandemic, epidemiologists take the stage, and during earthquakes, seismologists. All of them have made their appearances in the public space for known reasons over the past two years, but we can say that among the ‘prophets’, economic analysts are currently the most popular.

Various institutions in Croatia have always had their chief economists, but recently their faces, which we are used to seeing in specialized TV shows and economic columns, now appear in ‘prime time’ and in the most attractive spaces in print media.

Chief economists are traditionally found in commercial banks, but also in associations such as the Croatian Employers’ Association (HUP), the Croatian Chamber of Economy (HGK), the Croatian Banking Association (HUB), the World Bank, and the Croatian National Bank (HNB), yet rarely is there talk about what their everyday tasks actually are.

It is said that a good chief economist is one who, based on the raw data received, has the ability to find a thorough cause-and-effect relationship and draw conclusions that are useful both to the institution they work for and to the wider public that is waiting for good news about when we will emerge from the crisis.

One of the main responsibilities of a chief economist is the development, coordination, and preparation of economic and financial analyses, as well as planning, supervision, and coordination of economic research.

Although the role of chief economist is most closely associated with financial, economic, and political institutions, globally, in the last 10 years, this profession has become increasingly popular in private companies, as large tech companies like Google and Microsoft introduced the position of chief economist back in 2010. This trend has continued in companies that offer data and financial services, which utilize chief economists to present their data to clients and the media in a broader economic context.

As early as eight years ago, the Washington Post wrote about how, in the new data world, the chief economist has become a marketing must-have. It is not uncommon in Croatia for the chief economist of an institution to be its ‘face’ when the nation needs to explain the latest trends and complex economic concepts. In Croatia, we even have a rare example of a union that has its own chief economist, namely macroeconomist Matija Kroflin, who has been working for the Independent Union of Science and Higher Education for several years, and his responsibility is to provide the economic basis for all types of negotiations in which unions participate.

This year in Croatia, there have been quite a few changes in positions and career shifts among chief economists. Thus, Iva Tomić joined the team of economists at the World Bank in Croatia after serving as the chief economist of HUP for two and a half years, and she was replaced in that role by long-time chief economist from the banking sector Hrvoje Stojić. His last position was as chief economist at Addiko Bank, where he initiated one of the highest quality research teams in the private sector in Southeast Europe. As we learn, after Stojić’s departure, that bank abolished the position due to a strategic shift in business and will outsource research and analysis services from Vienna.

Josip Funda continues to serve as the chief economist of the World Bank in Croatia, with 15 years of experience in the fields of macroeconomics and fiscal policy. Before joining the World Bank, Funda was the head of the Real Sector and Budget Analysis Department at HNB and worked as an economist in the Fiscal Policy Department of the European Central Bank (ECB).

The new chief economist of the Croatian Chamber of Economy is Goran Šaravanja, who replaced Zvonimir Savić in that position, who remains in the system as an advisor but has also specialized in implementing the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NPOO) in the Office of the Prime Minister.

In the careers of chief economists in commercial banks, not much has changed recently. One of the more quoted figures in our region was once Zdeslav Šantić as a former analyst at Splitska, or OTP Bank, but in the meantime, he has opened his own consulting firm. Among other colleagues, Ivana Jović remains the chief economist at PBZ, Alen Kovač at Erste Bank, Zrinka Živković Matijević at Raiffeisen Bank, and Hrvoje Dolenec at Zagrebačka Bank.

The Croatian National Bank also has a chief economist, and in that position is Vedran Šošić since 2018 (before that he was the vice-governor of HNB), and alongside his experience at HNB, he also worked in the Mission of the Republic of Croatia to the EU.

Recently, we have also witnessed some changes in global and European institutions, which also consider the role of chief economist to be very serious and important. This year, both the IMF and the World Bank have new chief economists, with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas replacing Gita Gopinath at the IMF, and Indermit Gill becoming the chief economist of the World Bank, also serving as the Senior Vice President for Development Economics.

In September, the World Economic Forum published a study of the world’s chief economists titled Chief Economist Outlook, in which they all swear by a rather bleak scenario ahead of us: inflation has risen to levels unseen in a generation, and growth expectations have been reduced in all regions. Real wages and consumer confidence are in free fall, further complicating growth and even increasing the prospects for social unrest. ‘On both the domestic and global fronts, we find ourselves in uncharted waters.’ – say economists. And such an environment is an ideal basis for economic forecasters.

More about the new ‘transfers’ of chief economists in Croatia and their new responsibilities can be read in the new printed and digital edition of Lider.