We have secured gas for this winter, but what about next year?

The European Union has enough gas for this winter, but it could face shortages next year if Russia further reduces supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Monday, urging governments to act faster to save energy and expand renewable energy sources.

Despite Russia reducing gas deliveries this year, Europe has avoided a serious shortage and started the winter with full gas storage, partly thanks to the EU’s emergency measures for filling storage and a fortunate period of mild weather and high gas prices that reduced fuel demand, Reuters reported.

However, next year could pose an even tougher challenge than the energy crisis that has caused fuel bills to soar for European households and forced industries to temporarily shut down to avoid significantly increased gas bills.

If Russia were to cut a small share of the gas it still supplies to Europe, and Chinese demand for gas recovers from the lowest levels caused by Covid-19 lockdowns, the EU could face a gas shortfall of 27 billion cubic meters (bcm) next year, the IEA said.

Total gas consumption in the EU was 412 billion cubic meters in 2021, according to EU data.

– This is a serious challenge – said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol at a conference with the European Commission in Brussels, adding that the shortfall would amount to about 60 billion cubic meters without the EU’s emergency response measures.

The potential shortfall could be avoided by increasing subsidies and policies for energy savings through home renovations and replacing fossil fuel heating with heat pumps, while continuing the EU’s plans for mass expansion of renewable energy, the IEA said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the bloc’s gas supply is ‘secure for this winter’ and that the EU is already preparing for the next one.

The energy watchdog also called for better campaigns to encourage consumers to use less energy, Reuters reports.