The number of insured persons at HZMO has been increasing for 21 consecutive months and has surpassed the pre-crisis 2019.

In November, a decline in the total number of insured persons was recorded, which began in August and typically lasts until January. The decline was primarily generated by the category of Accommodation and Food Service Activities, which is expected due to the end of the central part of the season as well as the post-season.

However, the annual growth dynamics continue for 21 consecutive months, and the recorded increase compared to the pre-crisis 2019 reflects favorable trends in the labor market. However, as in many other countries across the EU, a strong annual increase in the share of workers from third countries has been achieved, which clearly indicates a mismatch between labor supply and demand, according to an analysis by RBA analysts.

The slowdown in economic activity has not yet had a significant impact on employment, which is clearly visible even in the most sensitive categories of NKD (Construction, Real Estate Activities, Manufacturing, etc.).

According to the published provisional data from HZMO, the number of insured persons in November amounted to 1,617,006, which is a decrease compared to October of a modest 0.2 percent or 3,785 persons, and an increase compared to November of last year of 2.1 percent or 33,875 persons. Therefore, the positive annual growth rates that have been ongoing since March 2021 have continued, reflecting favorable trends in the labor market.

Compared to November 2020, the number of insured persons at HZMO is higher by 71,440 persons or 4.6 percent, while compared to November of the pre-crisis 2019, the number of insured persons is higher by 3.9 percent (+60,180 persons).

In the first eleven months, the largest positive contribution to employment growth was generated by insured persons in Accommodation, Food Preparation, and Serving Activities. Namely, compared to the period from January to November of last year, the average number of insured persons of 1,613,676 is higher by 38,859 or 2.5 percent, of which 25.3 percent or 10,171 of the increase in the number of insured persons came precisely from the mentioned activity.

The strongest growth in ICT

Among the NKD activities that recorded the strongest annual growth in November are the categories of Information and Communication (+8 percent), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+6.9 percent), Administrative and Support Service Activities (+5.1 percent), Real Estate Activities, Transportation and Storage (each by 3.8 percent), and Construction (+3.2 percent).

The trend of annual growth in the Information and Communication category has been continuously ongoing since mid-2015. Furthermore, in construction, the trend of positive annual changes has continued since October 2015, while in the Manufacturing sector, the number of insured persons compared to the same period last year was higher by a modest 1.7 percent.

On a monthly basis, as expected, in November, a continuation of the decline in the category of Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-6.4 percent) was recorded, while in the opposite direction, with a growth rate of 1.1 percent compared to October, the Construction category acted, followed by Education (+1 percent). Accommodation and Food Service Activities participate in the total number of insured persons with a share of 6 percent, Construction with 8.2 percent, and Education with 7.7 percent.

Deterioration compared to October was also recorded by categories that participate significantly in the total number of insured persons, such as Trade (-0.02 percent, with a structure of 15.1 percent) and Transportation and Storage (-0.6 percent, with a structure of 5.2 percent). On the other hand, the Manufacturing sector, which participates in the structure with 15.5 percent, remained almost unchanged in November compared to October (+0.1 percent). With the exception of August, this category has recorded continuously positive monthly growth rates since the beginning of the year.

A modest increase compared to the previous month was also recorded in the Information and Communication category (+0.05 percent, with a structure of 3.6 percent), whose trend of monthly growth in insured persons at HZMO has been ongoing for the thirtieth consecutive month.