If one event had to be chosen from the past week, it would be the presentation of ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot capable of generating impressively detailed texts based on just a few keywords. The text, very similar to what a human can write, is the result of the latest release of the Generative Pre-trained Transformer technology. ChatGPT was presented in San Francisco by Open AI, a company founded in 2015.
When it comes to the capabilities of artificial intelligence, even the most cautious have been amazed and astonished by what ChatGPT can do. Regardless of it being some kind of beta version, the ability, if needed, to write a poem about a publishing house is breathtaking. Despite the bizarre mistakes. If developments in artificial intelligence continue at this speed and in this direction, it means drastic changes in many areas of human activity. The challenge that, for example, written journalism faced with the advent of the internet is child’s play compared to the tsunami that is coming. The impact will not only be on journalists but, it seems, also on the army of previously untouchable programmers.
Futurism at Our Doorstep
Columnists eventually recognize which topics particularly interest their readers, and those they are more indifferent to. It has been shown that the readers of ‘Ekonomalija’ are not crazy about, let’s call it, futuristic topics. Immersed in daily survival, entrepreneurs and managers will rather read reactions to some new government move or to global trends causing inflation or threatening recession. A seemingly distant future is not in their focus.
Until a few years ago, estimates of how the development of artificial intelligence could impact the concrete business of a currently living business project meant looking five or more years ahead. Today, processes have accelerated so much that it could easily happen that AI gains the ability to shake many business models within a year or two. Futurology has become an important input for planning the next year or two!
Google’s search engine has become the standard. It allows us to obtain a dozen texts based on a keyword from which we extract what is useful to us. ChatGPT reads dozens and hundreds of texts and composes one, its own, original text for us. This is a drastically new step.
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Now, let’s transpose these already realized possibilities to the business area and be open to the progressive learning of artificial intelligence and see what it can do for business and the economy. One of the reasons why economic models have struggled to predict movements for decades is that actors do not have all the information relevant for, e.g., determining the prices of their products (asymmetry). Or they do not have all the information based on which they could negotiate prices for raw materials or supplies they procure. It is not hard to imagine a moment when artificial intelligence will manage to collect calculations, offers, and demands worldwide in a short time. This will then be available to negotiators. Which brings both good and bad consequences, but in any case introduces entirely new relationships into business. Poker with open cards, one might say.
Synthetic Politician
Let’s look at what artificial intelligence could do in the current weighings around the world, for example, how much to tighten monetarily (by raising interest rates) to bring inflation back to acceptable levels. And how to react to expansive fiscal policies that simultaneously governments around the world, in fear of recession, unrest, and losing votes, are undoing efforts to curb price growth. It will take years to find balance. Artificial intelligence, devoid of emotions, could, in some near moment, become capable of making the best decisions.
Similarly, with an extremely large amount of information and processing speed, a program of artificial intelligence could emerge that would equalize profit margins across different sectors of the economy. Taking into account environmentally sustainable growth and acceptable global GDP growth rates. Plus determining the best distribution of newly created value to maintain the drive for entrepreneurship among entrepreneurs, but without excessive accumulation of wealth in the hands of one percent.
I know, all this sounds like some economic science fiction. Skeptics will find dozens of reasons why things will not go in that direction. Among other things, political lobbies would not allow such a thing.
But here, in Denmark, the Synthetic Party is already operating, whose ‘leader’ is Leader Lars, a form of artificial intelligence programmed on the policies of Denmark’s small, marginal parties. Leader Lars aims at about twenty percent of Danish voters who do not turn out to vote. Lars cannot (for now) enter parliament, but party members, if they ever do, will follow the instructions of their AI leader.
Perhaps the future is closer than most think.
