CEIZ index: Annual GDP growth in the third quarter 7.8 percent

The movement of the CEIZ index in September suggests that the Croatian economy will grow by 7.8 percent in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, according to estimates from the Economic Institute.

– In September 2022, the CEIZ index recorded an increase of 0.13 index points compared to August 2022. At the same time, compared to September 2021, the value of the index decreased by 3.4 index points, which is primarily due to the high value of the CEIZ index in the third quarter of last year, during which economic activity significantly recovered after the closure of the economy due to the implementation of epidemiological measures – stated the EIZ in the information published on their website on Monday.

They emphasize that, when observing the behavior of individual components of the index, a higher seasonally adjusted value in September this year compared to the previous month is recorded for the number of tourist arrivals, while the volume of industrial production, revenues of the state budget from value-added tax (VAT), and retail trade recorded a decrease in seasonally adjusted value.

– The described movement of the index suggests that economic activity measured by the annual rate of change of GDP in the third quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter of 2021, records a growth rate of 7.8 percent – estimate the analysts of the EIZ.

The announcement also notes that the monthly estimate of the GDP growth rate based on the value of the CEIZ index is indicative and should primarily be used as information about the current state and direction of the business cycle in the Republic of Croatia.

The CEIZ index is a coincident economic indicator, that is, a monthly composite indicator of the business cycle developed at the EIZ, and its purpose is to provide timely information about the current state of the business cycle, which is why the value of the CEIZ index changes simultaneously with changes in the business cycle.

This index is a single-number indicator of the business cycle that contains information that would otherwise need to be collected by analyzing a large number of different economic series, and unlike the time series of quarterly GDP, the CEIZ index provides a monthly assessment of the state of the economy, thereby providing more precise information about changes occurring over shorter periods.