Croatia with Jadroplov, LNG, and Petrokemija in a Global Game Where Americans Win

The butterfly effect is in full swing these days. Split’s Jadroplov, which has so far exclusively dealt with the transportation of bulk cargo, has enriched its fleet with the first tanker for the transport of liquefied gas (LPG). ‘Marko Marulić’ was taken over in Japan and immediately set off on its first commercial journey from South Korea to China.

At the same time, Wood Mackenzie analyst Fraser Carson counted 51 LNG ships near European shores. Several months earlier, Petrokemija halted the production of mineral fertilizers due to the high cost of gas, which accounted for over 80 percent of expenses. This is not only a threat to it but to the entire mineral fertilizer industry in Europe. Fertilizer production plants are closing across the continent, leading to further price increases, even though they had already reached a historical maximum last year.

Thus, domestic farmers are struggling ahead of the autumn sowing – due to the butterfly, or rather due to expensive seeds and even more expensive fertilizers, and it is unlikely they will sow even one hectare more than last year. Meanwhile, Europe, fearing winter due to the reduction and possible interruption of Russian gas supplies, is seeking alternatives and has turned to LNG. Last summer, the filling of European gas storage began, which is estimated to have reached 95 percent capacity. Now ships are waiting off Europe for regasification, even if it takes several months, as long as it takes Germany and the Netherlands to prepare new capacities.

Croatia is also part of this global game – boasting a new LNG terminal on Krk and also investing in additional capacities – which would more than double from the current 2.6 billion cubic meters to over six billion cubic meters per year by 2024. All of this will cost around 180 million euros. However, no one is asking about the price, especially when a generous financial ‘push’ from Brussels is expected.

In any case, the price for LNG delivery in November is now lower than that contracted for January. So, there will be gas, it’s just a question of at what price. Germany, for example, spent almost 50 billion euros on the import of this energy source in the first eight months, practically three times more than in the same period last year. And in the USA, they are rubbing their hands in satisfaction and sending LNG ships ‘across the Pond’, some even with mineral fertilizers.

All these cause-and-effect relationships can be compared to the butterfly effect. The only difference is that this butterfly did not flap its wings in the Amazon and thus cause a tornado in Texas. That ‘butterfly’ is sitting in the Kremlin, and its ‘special military operation’, conceived as a blitzkrieg, has not only surpassed a single flap of wings but has lasted a full eight months, like twenty average butterfly lifespans. And no matter how it seems that Russia will lose the war it started, the rest of the world, especially Europe, lives in fear of the last Putin’s move, the one on the button that activates nuclear weapons. And then all the butterflies are dead.