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Hedge Fund Managers Believe in Further Dollar Growth and Hesitate to Sell Stocks

Hedge Fund Managers are convinced that the value of the dollar will continue to rise, after its value reached historic levels this year, surpassing even the value of the euro, all due to the aggressive raising of interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve to curb inflation.

According to the Financial Times, as the dollar strengthens against the Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, and euro, hedge fund leaders are betting more on its further strengthening than on a decline. This data comes from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Higher interest rates attract foreign capital as investors seek better returns. And it seems that the rate hikes in the U.S. will continue, as the Fed has already announced a new increase at the upcoming meetings on November 1 and 2. On the other hand, the annual growth of consumer prices in the U.S. stands at 8.3 percent. However, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have been less aggressive in their rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan has completely refrained from such moves and remained committed to zero interest rates.

Profit from a Strong Dollar

The dollar, along with this year’s largest quarterly growth since 2016 and the highest value levels in the last 20 years, has also enjoyed its status as a ‘safe haven’ asset during the current crisis. Therefore, many hedge fund managers believe that the dollar must rise further and hesitate to sell stocks until they are sure that the Fed will halt its aggressive monetary policy.

The war in Ukraine and fears of recession have also further strengthened the dollar. As a result, investors have been moving away from emerging market assets and European assets in favor of dollar-denominated trading, which is considered a safer option.

Brevan Howard, one of the world’s largest hedge fund managers, is among the firms that have bet on the strength of the dollar, as well as London-based Aspect Capital, which manages about $9 billion in assets. Their diversified fund has grown by about 44 percent this year, and currencies have been one of the most profitable asset classes in recent weeks. Additionally, according to the latest information for investors, at the end of last month, bets on the dollar in the Tulip Trend fund of Progressive Capital Partners secured investors three of the six largest profitable positions.

Even after realizing profits, macro hedge fund traders continue to bet on the dollar against other currencies such as the euro, British pound, and Chinese renminbi.

Another reason why hedge funds have profited from the dollar this year is that they use complex algorithms to identify patterns and trends in financial markets. These funds manage assets of $360 billion, according to data from the research firm HFR.

Everything Depends on the Fed

However, despite the strong dollar, which further helps to increase inflation in other countries, the Fed has repeatedly dismissed speculation that it might halt its sharp interest rate hikes. Currently, prices in the markets are forming in anticipation of the next expected Fed interest rate increase of 0.75 percentage points.

A strong dollar, along with the support of hedge fund managers, will last until the Fed ‘breaks’ and decides to ease its aggressive monetary policy.

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