Nervousness about the arrival of a weather and economic chill at the end of 2023 is seriously increasing. There are reasons for panic (Putin’s threats of nuclear weapons are back), but once again, there is no benefit from panic this time.
In the triangle of uncertainty, nervousness, and panic, questions are intensifying: Did the Americans (NATO) really have to provoke the regime in the Kremlin and incite it to aggression against Ukraine? Should the team from Brussels have reacted so quickly by imposing sanctions on Moscow, after which the response came in the form of a cut-off and increased prices of Russian gas to European countries? And thirdly, is it not time to cancel obedience and cooperation with the European Commission and follow the path of the disobedient Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán?
Considering that discussions about these issues are also taking place in business circles, here is a personal standpoint and an attempt at argumentation. With the awareness that this is not an area for which I am academically educated. So, very likely, I do not see all the important layers. Just as non-economists often fail to dive into all layers of economic topics. With that risk, here is the continuation.
No Free Lunch
First about the Americans. Of course, they were ‘poking the bear’. But it shows once again that the main world policeman, although seemingly nearing retirement, does not change its method of operation. It likes to heat up conflicts, but as far away from the borders of the USA as possible. It looks for ways to extract benefits from every conflict. And it plans that long-term. So, as if by chance, it encourages, for example, the Croatian government to establish a terminal for liquefied gas on Krk. And the American military-industrial complex knows how to lobby for the warehouses of finished products to start emptying. And most importantly, the world policeman knows that every serious war strengthens the American dollar.
But what is surprising about that? When Croatia joined NATO in 2009, in which the Americans have a ‘controlling stake’, no one significant protested. Collectively, we pretended to be naive. Counting on the fact that the bill for protection would never be asked from us by the well-known security guard. With interest. Now it is expensive for us. But there is no free lunch. Of course, the option of exiting NATO is always open. We can declare ourselves neutral or return to the still formally existing Non-Aligned Movement. With all the risks that would bring.
Second, about the incompetent administration in Brussels. It is a weak and quite disoriented group, but whatever it is, it is ours. We have no other. But, come on, let the critics put themselves in the position of a member of the leadership of the European Commission. What would they have done in his place this spring? Written sharp diplomatic notes and continued trading with Putin’s team? And thus the leader from the Kremlin would be appeased and would not start any aggression against any other European state? Gave faith for dinner? And additionally opened the possibility that tomorrow every country in Europe would start reclaiming its historical territories. With everyone choosing the borders when their state was the largest. Perhaps this could be done without streams of blood if there were a way to increase the volume of the globe several times, so that the surface of Europe could also increase to satisfy everyone’s appetites.
