August did not bring an answer as to whether and when Iranian oil will flow to Europe

Europe has been trying for months to revive the 2015 agreement between major powers regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which was dismantled by Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. The revival would quench the oil-thirsty Union and bring down high prices of black gold. In early August, the EU and Iranians agreed on a possible draft of a renewed agreement, but the Iranians insist on concrete guarantees from America. And that is where it got stuck.

In 2015, a nuclear agreement was reached between Iran and the leading world powers to reduce the scope of Tehran’s nuclear activities and create, as described by the United Nations nuclear oversight agency, 'the strongest verification regime in the world'. Under this agreement, Tehran committed to halt its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. However, the agreement collapsed in 2018 when then U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from it. Since then, Iran has continued its nuclear program, stating that its only intention is to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, which has not exactly calmed the West.

New draft agreement

In July of this year, the European Union proposed a new draft to revive that nuclear agreement, and talks were already held in August in Vienna involving representatives from China, the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, and Russia. After the meeting, it was stated that a proposal for the text of the new agreement had been agreed upon, which they hope will prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, that 'there is nothing left to negotiate further' and that the text of the agreement is 'a very good compromise for all parties'. Shortly after the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Hosein Amir-Abdolahian stated that Iran welcomes the continuation of diplomacy and negotiations and added that the United States should now show that it also wants this agreement.

– The United States always states that it wants an agreement, but this approach needs to be seen in both the agreement and in practice – said Amir-Abdolahian, as reported by Iranian media.

This was at the beginning of August, and all parties were somewhat satisfied, expecting a final agreement in a few weeks, but everything became complicated again. The failure of nuclear negotiations could increase the risk of regional war as Israel threatens military action against Iran if diplomacy fails to compel Tehran to stop developing nuclear weapons. After the Israeli threat, Iran’s response was not long in coming, warning of a 'devastating response to any Israeli attack'.

Although the European Union considers the proposal for the agreement to actually be its final text, Tehran decided to seek guarantees, primarily from the U.S., to ensure that the new agreement would not harm it, which sent negotiations back into reverse. For this reason, it sent a response to the Union, which chairs the nuclear negotiations, in which it neither accepts nor rejects the draft text of the agreement, but raises several new questions it wants to include in the agreement.

Guarantees are being sought

The central part of Iran’s response to the Union, said the Iranian negotiating team, is guarantees that Western companies investing in Iran will be protected if the U.S. withdraws from the agreement again as it did under former President Donald Trump. Iran also proposed mechanisms in the agreement that would allow Tehran to quickly ramp up its nuclear efforts if Washington withdraws from it.

– It is important for Iran that there are guarantees that will have their price if the United States suddenly withdraws from the agreement again – said Sejed Mohamad Marandi, an advisor to the Iranian negotiating team, to the British Broadcasting Corporation.

European officials responded to Iran’s position by saying that there must be compromise, but also that the agreement depends on Tehran’s flexibility. The issue of guarantees was repeated several times during negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and other parties in an attempt to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, which lifted most international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for strict but temporary limitations on Iran’s nuclear program.

At the beginning of the negotiations, Iran demanded a promise from the U.S. that it would never again withdraw from the agreement as long as Tehran complies with it, but U.S. officials rejected this due to the Biden administration’s inability to control decisions that future presidents will make. Such fear is not unfounded when we know that Trump could run for president again, unless the FBI puts him behind bars before the next elections (which seems unlikely). At the same time, support for the former MAGA president is booming across the U.S., so if Trump returns to the White House, no one really knows what could happen, neither with this agreement nor with many others, such as climate agreements.

Another significant obstacle for Iran is that the U.S. has designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite military, as a 'foreign terrorist organization', which Iran wants to remove, while the U.S. continues to hesitate. Additionally, signals are coming from Israel that the attempt to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran should be halted.

The last word is Khamenei’s

In Iran, a series of meetings have been held in recent days between the head of the negotiating team and high officials in the Government, Parliament, and the Iranian National Security Council, but the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the final word on all major national security issues. Iran’s response to the draft text of the European Union has provoked mixed reactions from the other parties to the agreement, namely Russia, China, France, Britain, Germany, the U.S., and Iran. Russian chief negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov, who has closely collaborated with the Iranian negotiating team, announced on his Twitter profile that there are 'great prospects for achieving the goal', adding that the decision is now up to Washington.

– The final result depends on how the U.S. will respond to the latest reasonable Iranian proposals – said Ulyanov.

State Department spokesman Ned Price declined to comment on the details of the negotiations, stating that 'our positions are communicated privately and directly to the European Union'. One option is for the U.S. response to Iran to serve as the basis for a revised draft of the EU text that could be sent to the parties for approval. Another option is to continue exchanging ideas between capitals without a strict deadline for concluding negotiations, which seems to be the more likely option.